Miguel PdL

This is a painful post as I have to admit I missed the opportunity to make any predictions before the Matchday 13 games kicked off and so I’m left to compare what the prediction would have been … and side by side to the actual result.

Before I get into that from matchday 12 there were 2 correct out of the 5 making it a running total of 23 out of 59.

So to the rubber that is matchday 13, with predictions and results.

Bohemians (24%) vs Dundalk (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Dundalk is 26%

So I would have gone for a Dundalk win and the score was ….. Bohemians 5 – 1 Dundalk. So way off there.

Next up

Derry City (36%) vs St. Patricks (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and St. Patricks is 28%

System looks to be a draw and the result Derry City 2 – 2 St. Patricks. A draw so on the money here

Waterford (57%) vs Finn Harps (18%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Finn Harps is 24%

The Blues for a predicted win. The result was Waterford 1 – 2 Finn Harps. Waterford played very well in the 1st half but Finn Harps came on strong in the 2nd.

Drogheda (54%) vs Longford (22%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Longford is 23%

So a Drogs win predicated and the result was Drogheda 4 – 1 Longford, so a good win all around.

Finally

Shamrock Rovers (55%) vs Sligo Rovers (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers is 26%

So a clear Rovers (SHA) win predicted and the final results Shamrock Rovers 0 – 1 Sligo Rovers. Well there’s a turn up for the books a whole load of ways around, although then again sounds like it was well deserved. Sligo for the league by the looks of things now !!!

Starting to bomb out on these predictions, 1 out of 4 last week, and could have been close on two of the match, but it is what it is.

Running total is 21 out of 54.

This weeks predictions, we will start again with Waterford, under new management.

Waterford (40%) vs Derry City (33%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Derry City is 27%

The number of sim home wins for Waterford is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Derry City is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 3

Waterford (0.62xG) vs Derry City (0.68xG)

All indications here are for a draw ….. I’ll go with the draw and maybe hope that new management spur the Blues towards a real win.

St. Patricks (48%) vs Bohemians (23%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Bohemians is 28%

The number of sim home wins for St. Patricks is = 4
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 5
The number of sim draw is = 1

St. Patricks (1.51xG) vs Bohemians (1.45xG)

Now I went all gun hoo with St. Pats last week and they lost badly, and there will be goals in this match, and I’ll stick with the St. Pats win.

Dundalk (45%) vs Shamrock Rovers (27%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers is 27%

The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 2

Dundalk (1.66xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.36xG)

Ahhh the data is messing with me now, all pointers are to a Dundalk win …. it can’t be, I’m going against the grain here and will predict a draw (dare I say based on the xG).

Finn Harps (34%) vs Drogheda (38%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Drogheda is 28%

The number of sim home wins for Finn Harps is = 5
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 3

Finn Harps (1.14xG) vs Drogheda (0.76xG)

Fair play to the Drogs they’ve really embedded themselves into the season well, and Finn Harps have tipped away nicely nothing much between these teams and so will plum for a draw.

Sligo Rovers (63%) vs Longford (14%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Longford is 21%

The number of sim home wins for Sligo Rovers is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Longford is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 2

Sligo Rovers (0.94xG) vs Longford (0.74xG)

Nice bit of news about the new stadium for Sligo and I’ll go for win for Sligo here too.

Oh for fffffff sake match day 10 was a wash out especially the Waterford vs Drogheda match where I could not have predicted the chaos there.

Running total is 20 out of 50.

For this weekend, there’s just the 4 matches.

Finn Harps (11%) vs Dundalk (67%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Dundalk is 20%

The number of sim home wins for Finn Harps is = 0
The number of sim away wins for Dundalk is = 9
The number of sim draw is = 1

Finn Harps (1.12xG) vs Dundalk (1.29xG)

All pointing towards a Dundalk win, and their not exactly in a great place and Finn Harps have been tipping along nicely ….. but will stick to the data guns and say Dundalk for the win.

Drogheda (25%) vs St. Patricks (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and St. Patricks is 25%

The number of sim home wins for Drogheda is = 3
The number of sim away wins for St. Patricks is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 3

Drogheda (1.07xG) vs St. Patricks (1.2xG)

Can Drogheda score goals their xG is going to be way off given the 7 goal win last week. Will go for a St. Pats win.

Shamrock Rovers (56%) vs Derry City (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City is 25%

The number of sim home wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Derry City is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 3

Shamrock Rovers (2.07xG) vs Derry City (0.66xG)

The sims seem to indicate a draw but over all al Rovers win here is predicted.

Longford (24%) vs Bohemians (50%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Bohemians is 26%

The number of sim home wins for Longford is = 2
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 6
The number of sim draw is = 2

Longford (0.7xG) vs Bohemians (1.43xG)

And finally a Bohs win here.

What could go wrong ?

First up news of the week in LOI has to be the dismissal of Kevin Sheedy from Waterford FC. I think the writing was on the wall from early on, dare I say before the season even started. Back to the drawing board for Waterford. Before making a prediction on their game, and the four others for matchday 10, a review of match day 9 shows a 3 out of 5 result, with two draws called correctly.

The running total is 20 correct results out of 45.

Now to the predictions for matchday 10

Derry City (64%) vs Longford (14%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Longford is 20%

The number of sim home wins for Derry City is = 8
The number of sim away wins for Longford is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 1

Derry City (1.0xG) vs Longford (0.78xG)

I went for a Derry win last week and it didn’t work out, but the predictions are aiming towards a Derry win again here, and so we stay with the Derry win (predicted)

Dundalk (61%) vs Sligo Rovers (16%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers is 22%

The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 5
The number of sim away wins for Sligo Rovers is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 3

Dundalk (1.41xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.42xG)

Sligo are scoring away from home (xG) and these two teams had a draw on the opening day of the season. Data says Dundalk win, the heart says draw, but will go for the Dundalk win.

Waterford (55%) vs Drogheda (21%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Drogheda is 23%

The number of sim home wins for Waterford is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 2

Waterford (0.62xG) vs Drogheda (0.76xG)

This will be a tight game again, well mainly a 0-0 type match, but the data is pointing towards a Waterford FC win, and we all need some cheering up, so a Waterford win in this one.

Bohemians (58%) vs Finn Harps (16%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Finn Harps is 26%

The number of sim home wins for Bohemians is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Finn Harps is = 3
The number of sim draw is = 4

Bohemians (1.38xG) vs Finn Harps (1.26xG)

I’m going to call a draw in this one, the simmed matches and xG are indicating a draw and Finn Harps are tipping along nicely and I cannot push for the Bohs win, so a draw it will be.

St. Patricks (33%) vs Shamrock Rovers (38%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Shamrock Rovers is 29%

The number of sim home wins for St. Patricks is = 2
The number of sim away wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 4

St. Patricks (1.59xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.23xG)

And finally to the top of the table clash and this has a draw written all over it, and so another draw.

It’s getting harder to keep up with all the matches happening in the LOI, but at least match day 8 (in review) was a good one as another 4 predictions out of 5 were on the button. Although I was way off the the one that was incorrect with Bohs getting beaten by Derry City, could anyone have seen that coming ?

The running total is 17 out of 40.

Now in to match day 9 predictions.

Drogheda (32%) vs Bohemians (41%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Bohemians is 27%

The number of sim home wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 6
The number of sim draw is = 2

Drogheda (1.12xG) vs Bohemians (1.45xG)

This is too close to call and so going for a draw.

Shamrock Rovers (58%) vs Waterford (18%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford is 24%

The number of sim home wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Waterford is = 6
The number of sim draw is = 1

Shamrock Rovers (2.09xG) vs Waterford (0.62xG)

The sim matches are playing tricks with me, but the call here has to be a Shamrock Rovers win

Longford (11%) vs Dundalk (69%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Dundalk is 17%

The number of sim home wins for Longford is = 2
The number of sim away wins for Dundalk is = 7
The number of sim draw is = 1

Longford (0.77xG) vs Dundalk (1.2xG)

Dundalk are on a roll now and I’ll take them for a win in this one.

Sligo Rovers (36%) vs St. Patricks (35%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and St. Patricks is 29%

The number of sim home wins for Sligo Rovers is = 4
The number of sim away wins for St. Patricks is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 2

Sligo Rovers (0.89xG) vs St. Patricks (0.90xG)

This is looking like a draw and will call it for a draw.

Derry City (61%) vs Finn Harps (15%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Finn Harps is 23%

The number of sim home wins for Derry City is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Finn Harps is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 2

Derry City (0.83xG) vs Finn Harps (1.08xG)

I wonder is Finn Harps early season bubble about to burst with Derry catching them ? All the pointers are towards a Derry City win so will go for a Derry win.

Match day 7 review and a 4 predictions out of 5 is pretty decent this time around, the league must be settling down now.

The running total is 13 out of 35.

Now in to match day 8 predictions.

St. Patricks (68%) vs Longford (11%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Longford is 18%

The number of sim home wins for St. Patricks is = 9
The number of sim away wins for Longford is = 0
The number of sim draw is = 1

St. Patricks (1.72xG) vs Longford (0.81xG)

Going for a St. Pats win here

Drogheda (30%) vs Sligo Rovers (43%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Sligo Rovers is 26%

The number of sim home wins for Drogheda is = 0
The number of sim away wins for Sligo Rovers is = 5
The number of sim draw is = 5

Drogheda (1.11xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.24xG)

Taking it as a draw for this one

Bohemians (40%) vs Derry City (31%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Derry City is 28%

The number of sim home wins for Bohemians is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Derry City is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 2

Bohemians (0.97xG) vs Derry City (0.40xG)

Going for a narrow win for Bohs on this one.

Waterford (24%) vs Dundalk (51%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Dundalk is 24%

The number of sim home wins for Waterford is = 1
The number of sim away wins for Dundalk is = 8
The number of sim draw is = 1

Waterford (0.58xG) vs Dundalk (1.11xG)

Ahh hate saying this but looking like a Dundalk win

Finn Harps (14%) vs Shamrock Rovers (61%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers is 24%

The number of sim home wins for Finn Harps is = 0
The number of sim away wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 8
The number of sim draw is = 2

Finn Harps (1.16xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.17xG)

The xG is pointing at a draw, and Finn Harps have started well, but will go for the Rovers win in this one.

Match day 6 review and got 3 predictions out of 5, and things are getting a bit better.

The running total is 9 out of 30.

Now in to match day 7 predictions

Finn Harps (20%) vs St. Patricks (54%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and St. Patricks is 26%

The number of sim home wins for Finn Harps is = 1
The number of sim away wins for St. Patricks is = 8
The number of sim draw is = 1

Finn Harps (1.05xG) vs St. Patricks (0.72xG)

Predicting St. Pats win here

Shamrock Rovers (56%) vs Bohemians (18%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians is 26%

The number of sim home wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 8
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 0
The number of sim draw is = 2

Shamrock Rovers (1.78xG) vs Bohemians (1.32xG)

Everything pointing to a Rovers win, let’s see

Dundalk (73%) vs Drogheda (8%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Drogheda is 14%

The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 0
The number of sim draw is = 4

Dundalk (1.45xG) vs Drogheda (0.67xG)

A Dundalk win here.

Waterford (63%) vs Longford (15%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Longford is 20%

The number of sim home wins for Waterford is = 7
The number of sim away wins for Longford is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 2

Waterford (0.57xG) vs Longford (0.70xG)

This is looking like a Waterford win, they certainly need one.

Sligo Rovers (42%) vs Derry City (30%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Derry City is 28%

The number of sim home wins for Sligo Rovers is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Derry City is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 2

Sligo Rovers (0.94xG) vs Derry City (0.26xG)

Going to go for a draw here.

Match day 5 review and got 2 predictions out of 5, and going a bit mad that I didn’t stick with the system selection of Sligo Rovers over Finn Harps.

The running total is 6 out of 25.

Now in to match day 6 predictions

Drogheda (18%) vs Shamrock Rovers (58%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Shamrock Rovers is 23%

The number of sim home wins for Drogheda is = 1
The number of sim away wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 5
The number of sim draw is = 4

Drogheda (1.24xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (0.72xG)

Going for a Shamrock Rovers win.

St. Patricks (49%) vs Waterford (25%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Waterford is 26%

The Probability of a Home win for St. Patricks is 49%
The Probability of an Away win for Waterford is 25%

St. Patricks (1.39xG) vs Waterford (0.6xG)

Going for St. Pats win

Longford (42%) vs Finn Harps (30%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Finn Harps is 28%

The number of sim home wins for Longford is = 5
The number of sim away wins for Finn Harps is = 3
The number of sim draw is = 2

Longford (0.86xG) vs Finn Harps (1.06xG)

Going for a draw in this one

Derry City (25%) vs Dundalk (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Dundalk is 25%

The number of sim home wins for Derry City is = 1
The number of sim away wins for Dundalk is = 8
The number of sim draw is = 1

Derry City (0.86xG) vs Dundalk (0.84xG)

Dundalk win in this case.

Bohemians (39%) vs Sligo Rovers (31%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers is 29%

The number of sim home wins for Bohemians is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Sligo Rovers is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 3

Bohemians (0.35xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.09xG)

Going for a draw here.

Match day 5, starts with a review of match day 4 results, and I got 2 out of 6 games right, St. Pats are on a roll and won their game, and I got luck for once and got to recall the Derry vs Shamrock Rovers  result in favour of Rovers. For the season so far I’m 4 for 20 at the moment.

I’m going to add a little to the match day 5 predictions and have a little look at xG for the teams too.

So first up here’s what the system software spat out for Waterford vs Bohemians

Waterford (43%) vs Bohemians (29%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Bohemians is 28%

So the system is going for a Waterford win, but in another part were I simulate the matches I get

The number of sim home wins for Waterford is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 6
The number of sim draw is = 1

So a Bohemians win.

There are stats for LOI with SoccerStats, and SportsMole being two good examples but for now I’ll just look to expected goals (xG) and that’s best viewed via FootyStats and for this match we have Waterford (0.17 xG) vs Bohemians (0.68 xG) so lets go for a Bohemians win.

For the next match the system has

Derry City (57%) vs Drogheda (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Drogheda is 22%

And in the sim games

The number of sim home wins for Derry City is = 5
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 3

And xG is Derry City (0.71 xG) vs Drogheda (0.56 xG).

Everything is pointing towards a Derry first win of the season …… but Drogheda have started so well. Will have to go with the system answer and call a Derry win on this one.

The next match

Dundalk (56%) vs St. Patricks (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and St. Patricks is 24%

The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 6
The number of sim away wins for St. Patricks is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 3

Dundalk (1.35 xG) vs St. Patricks (N/A)

So everything is pointing to a Dundalk win, a first for the season here too …. predicted anyway.

The next match is

Shamrock Rovers (73%) vs Longford (8%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Longford is 16%

The number of sim home wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 8
The number of sim away wins for Longford is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 1

Shamrock Rovers (0.76 xG) vs Longford (0.45 xG)

Calling a Shamrock Rovers win here.

And finally for match day 5 we’ll take

Sligo Rovers (60%) vs Finn Harps (15%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps is 24%

The number of sim home wins for Sligo Rovers is = 5
The number of sim away wins for Finn Harps is = 3
The number of sim draw is = 2

And the xG Sligo Rovers (0.52 xG) vs Finn Harps (1.2 xG)

Now in this case the xG is in favour of Finn Harps, they are flying I’m going to buck the trend and go for a Finn Harps win.

As I go into match day 4, a review of match day 3 reveals that I got, or should I start to say the system got, 1 result correct that was the Sligo Rovers win. While I hedged against them at the weekend it was good to see Waterford FC pick up their first points of the season.

The running tally so far after 14 games is 2 correct predictions, a 14% hit rate so far ….. terrible. Top of a local prediction league is 8 out of 14 so a bit to go there to catch up.

For match day 4 here are the predictions

St. Patricks (47%) vs Derry City (26%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Derry City is 26%

So calling a St. Pats win

Dundalk (62%) vs Bohemians (15%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Bohemians is 22%

Dundalk have had a shaky start to the season, but will go for the Dundalk win.

Finn Harps (24%) vs Waterford (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Waterford is 27%

Finn Harps are flying it but the system is saying a Waterford win, so will go for the Waterford to win scenario and make up for last week.

Longford (36%) vs Drogheda (38%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Drogheda is 25%

This is very close looks like it could be a draw.

Sligo Rovers (28%) vs Shamrock Rovers (43%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers is 29%

Dare I say a clash at the top of the table, and will go for a Rovers win …… Shamrock Rovers.

There’s an extra game this week

Derry City (29%) vs Shamrock Rovers (43%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers is 28%

And looks to be another Shamrock Rovers win to really put them top of the table. Now in truth I called this already as a draw a week or so back, but I’m going for Rovers win now.