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LOI Matchday 3 Predictions

April 1st, 2021

Before going into Match day 3 what was predicted from Match day 2, and it was 1 out of 4 matches, the St. Patricks win over Drogheda was the one and only predication right this season and nothing else, although Bohs were 2-0 up in their match at one stage.

Anyway here’s Match day 3 predictions

Longford (23%) vs Sligo Rovers (51%)
Probability of a Draw between Longford and Sligo Rovers is 25%

So calling a Sligo Rovers win and drive towards the top of the table.

Shamrock Rovers (38%) vs Dundalk (34%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk is 28%

Calling this clash of the giants to end in a draw.

Drogheda (50%) vs Finn Harps (24%)
The Probability of a draw between Drogheda and Finn Harps is 26%

Finn Harps have had a fine start to the season but it will come to a halt in Head in the Game Park I think, so calling a Drogheda win

Derry City (44%) vs Waterford (30%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Waterford is 26%

The first points of the season will be earned by Derry City

Bohemians (35%) vs St. Patricks (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and St. Patricks is 29%

In this one I’ll sit on the fence and go for a draw.

LOI Matchday 2 Predictions

March 25th, 2021

Here’s another go at the match day predictions, using past match results

For match day 2 in the League of Ireland Premier division

Dundalk (76%) vs Finn Harps (6%)
Draw (13%)

Calling a Dundalk win here

Waterford (43%) vs Sligo Rovers (30%)
Draw (27%)

Calling a drawn match

Bohemians (62%) vs Longford Town (15%)
Draw (22%)

Calling a Bohemians win

St. Patricks (62%) vs Drogheda (15%)
Draw (21%)

Calling a St. Patricks win

Derry City (29%) vs Shamrock Rovers (43%)
Draw (28%)

Calling a drawn match here once it eventually gets played.

LOI Open day predictions not even close

March 21st, 2021

I laid it out there, with opening day predictions for the first set of fixtures for League of Ireland 2021, and not one, not even one came to pass.

By all accounts Drogheda were the better team in the Drogheda 1 vs 0 Waterford match.

I didn’t even come close in any of the other matches. Well I plan to use the same prediction model for the next 2 rounds, just to see if it’s a thing to have the league settle down, and also to evaluate what it is I’m missing from the prediction model.

Football opening day predictions for League of Ireland 2021

March 19th, 2021

The new season (2021) is just about to get underway for the League of Ireland and unfortunately I’m not quite ready with the full league table predictions, but I have got an early version of match prediction analysis software in place (details to follow at a later date) and so I’m going to take a quick look at my local team Waterford FC first and see what we have in store in this first league game against Drogheda United.

What a first match to pick, Waterford and Drogheda haven’t played against each other in the LOI Premier League since July 2007, a 3-0 home win for Drogheda, and with all of my data so far going back to 2012, I’m left a little stumped with having to go on to predict this one. There’s just a model of the home / away goal scoring rates in the LOI since 2012, so in using this the result pops out as:

The Probability of a Home win for Drogheda is 30%
The Probability of an Away win for Waterford is 45%
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Waterford is 25%

Okay an away win for Waterford (maybe), let’s see what happens.

By the way it wasn’t that easy to find a dated version of LOI results from way back when, Whoscored ended up being the best source, with an honourable mention for Goal.

As for the other matches here are the predictions for the opening day

Shamrock Rovers (50%) vs St. Patricks (23%)
Draw (27%)

Finn Harps (24%) vs Bohemians (47%)
Draw (29%)

Longford Town (22%) vs Derry City (53%)
Draw (25%)

Sligo Rovers (24%) vs Dundalk (50%)
Draw (26%)

So wins for Shamrock Rovers, Bohemians, Derry City, Dundalk and Waterford FC for this opening day, let’s see how it pans out.