Miguel PdL

Little bit of a break after a great cup weekend, and of course before I move on let’s look at match day 21, and there were 2 out 5 matches predicted, so not so good with the new model.

Running total is 44 correct predictions out of 97 predictions made.

Okay on to match day 22 let’s see into this weekends fixtures.

Drogheda (38%) vs Waterford (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Waterford is 25%

Drogheda (1.25xG) vs Waterford (0.7xG)

So the Blues are back on the road, and in this case I’d be more hoping for a draw, but it looks like a Drogs home win.

Next up we have a top of the table clash.

Shamrock Rovers (49%) vs St. Patricks (23%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and St. Patricks is 27%

Shamrock Rovers (1.53xG) vs St. Patricks (1.48xG)

These big matches have a tendency for a draw, but will stick the neck out and go for a home win for Rovers.

Longford (22%) vs Derry City (53%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Derry City is 24%

Longford (0.70xG) vs Derry City (0.86xG)

A shortened LOI campaign this weekend and so this last match with go to Derry City.

In review just 3 matches in match day 20, and the Blues got the win we were all looking for. I should have gone for the gut feeling draw in the Drogs vs Longford match … oh well.

Running total is 42 out of 92 predictions made during the season.

On to match day 21 and there’s a full set of fixtures this weekend.

Derry City (28%) vs Shamrock Rovers (44%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers is 28%

Derry City (1.13xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.45xG)

Looks like an away day win Rovers in this one.

St. Patricks (60%) vs Drogheda (17%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Drogheda is 22%

St. Patricks (1.52xG) vs Drogheda (0.87xG)

One of the system indicators is for a draw here and so I’m going to plum for a draw.

Dundalk (75%) vs Finn Harps (7%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Finn Harps is 15%

Dundalk (1.6xG) vs Finn Harps (1.17xG)

All systems pointing towards a Dundalk win so will go with that.

Bohemians (63%) vs Longford (14%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Longford is 22%

Bohemians (1.68xG) vs Longford (0.78xG)

Great European win for Bohs during the week and hopefully they can keep the momentum going with another predicted win here against Longford.

Waterford (36%) vs Sligo Rovers (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Sligo Rovers is 27%

Waterford (0.77xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.33xG)

And finally to the Blues and for this weekend it will end as a Draw the the bit O’Red.

So what happened last week, I had another 3 out of 5 result. I should have gone with the system prediction of a Rovers win, ah well.

Running total is 40 out of 89 predictions made during the season.

Only a few matches this week due to the European qualification matches and so for this week I’ll put my neck on the line for the following results.

Finn Harps (28%) vs Waterford (44%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Waterford is 27%

Finn Harps (1.35xG) vs Waterford (0.66xG)

There’s a few pointers to a Blues win here in the simulations, and Finn Harps only had a narrow win the last time in Finn Park, and so going for the Waterford win here.

St. Patricks (48%) vs Derry City (25%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Derry City is 26%

St. Patricks (1.57xG) vs Derry City (0.86xG)

If St. Pats are going for the title push then nows the time to stamp on it, predicting a win here for St. Pats.

Longford (32%) vs Drogheda (42%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Drogheda is 25%

Longford (0.7xG) vs Drogheda (0.87xG)

Drogheda had a nice healthy win here the last time they played at Bishopsgate, and the system is slightly predicting another win here for Drogheda and so will go with it, although it could end up being a draw.

We start with a quick review and find that there’s 3 out of 5 for match day 18. I really didn’t see that Sligo Rovers result coming through, while the system did, but then the system didn’t manage to really define the draws soooooo.

Running total of 37 out of 84 predictions over the season so far.

We will now move over the half way point of matches in the LOI, so another small challenge is to better the first half

So for match day 19 we will call

Drogheda (51%) vs Finn Harps (23%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Finn Harps is 25%

Drogheda (1.26xG) vs Finn Harps (1.22xG)

Going for a Drogheda win here, and maybe give a helping hand to the Blues to catch the Harps in the league table.

Derry City (49%) vs Waterford (26%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Waterford is 25%

Derry City (1.06xG) vs Waterford (0.68xG)

While Waterford grabbed a win here earlier in the season, this systems model is still giving it as a Derry win, and with little to suggest a draw, I will have t go for the Derry win here.

Bohemians (35%) vs St. Patricks (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and St. Patricks is 29%

Bohemians (1.63xG) vs St. Patricks (1.50xG)

This has draw written all over it, a draw it will be.

Shamrock Rovers (39%) vs Dundalk (33%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk is 28%

Shamrock Rovers (1.5xG) vs Dundalk (1.37xG)

The system is pointing at another draw here, I’ll go for it, but more than likely a narrow Rovers win, but no calling it a draw.

Longford (22%) vs Sligo Rovers (52%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Sligo Rovers is 25%

Longford (0.68xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.25xG)

Finally we will go for a win for Sligo Rovers here with a score of 1 -2 to the bit O’Red.