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LOI Matchday 17 Predictions

June 21st, 2021

Another one of those fast turn around match weekends in the LOI, and for once I managed to catch it.

A look back at Fridays fixtures and its 3 predictions out of 5, I should have stayed with the system view on St. Pats.

The running total is 30 out of 74 predictions over the season so far.

Now for matchday 17.

Drogheda (17%) vs Dundalk (61%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Dundalk is 20%

Drogheda (1.2xG) vs Dundalk (1.32xG)

A local derby with a view that Dundalk will take the spoils this time.

St. Patricks (65%) vs Finn Harps (12%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Finn Harps is 22%

St. Patricks (1.64xG) vs Finn Harps (1.22xG)

Looking like a St. Pats win here

Derry City (41%) vs Sligo Rovers (31%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Sligo Rovers is 28%

Derry City (1.07xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.25xG)

The system prediction are not really conclusive here and so I’ll sit on the fence and call a draw here.

Bohemians (27%) vs Shamrock Rovers (44%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers is 29%

Bohemians (1.61xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.47xG)

Another Dublin derby and in this case looks like a narrow Shamrock Rovers win, my gut says draw, but will stay with the Rovers win this time.

Longford (27%) vs Waterford (48%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Waterford is 25%

Longford (0.67xG) vs Waterford (0.66xG)

Thank about a 6 pointer, with the spoils going to the Blues.

LOI Matchday 16 Predictions

June 16th, 2021

The weekend in review saw 1 correct result (St. Pats), the rest well it was disappointing to see Sligo Rovers go down, but I was happy out with the Blues taking a win and going against my prediction, I can forgive the system this one time.

The running total is 27 out of 69

Now to match day 16 and the predictions are as follows

Dundalk (76%) vs Longford (5%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Longford is 11%

Dundalk (1.51xG) vs Longford (0.74xG)

Can Dundalk get back on track this week, boy does this system not know about the background turmoil at Dundalk, but anyway a Dundalk win is predicted here.

Waterford (24%) vs Shamrock Rovers (50%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers is 26%

Waterford (0.64xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.43xG)

The system has not seen the new dawn at the Blues and is predicting a Rovers win.

St. Patricks (46%) vs Sligo Rovers (26%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Sligo Rovers is 28%

St. Patricks (1.68xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.33xG)

System sayes St. Pats …….. looks like a draw, I’m going for the draw.

Bohemians (52%) vs Drogheda (22%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Drogheda is 25%

Bohemians (1.64xG) vs Drogheda (0.86xG)

Now the simulation has a Drogs win, and I wonder are the 7 goals scored away at Waterford having an effect on that. Majority of the pointers are towards a Bohs win and so will go with that.

Finn Harps (23%) vs Derry City (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Derry City is 27%

Finn Harps (1.33xG) vs Derry City (0.75xG)

I’m not so sure about the xG on this one, but a Derry win is predicted.

Euro 2020 (in 2021) Predictions

June 11th, 2021

More predictions, but this time I was also entering a local Euro 2020 predictions competition. This one has proven to be a much harder undertaking. So I grabbed one big spreadsheet cranked the grey matter (no machine involved this time) and went for the following.

Shall I explain ……. na there’s loads of previews out there already, let’s just see what happens.

Semi finalists 1
France
Semi finalists 2
Italy
Semi finalists 3
Netherlands
Semi finalists 4
England
Winner
Italy
Runner-up
England
Total goals to be scored
129
Name the top goalscorer for the tournament
Harry Kane

LOI Matchday 15 Predictions

June 3rd, 2021

Match day 14 is behind me and the view in the rear view mirror is 3 out of 5, with the machine predicting a Derry win and I just went against it ……. I have to stop doing that.

The running total is 26 out of 64

Okay for Match day 15 the machine is predicting the following;

Derry City (43%) vs Bohemians (29%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Bohemians is 28%

The number of sim home wins for Derry City is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 0

Derry City (1.04xG) vs Bohemians (1.46xG)

I have to go with the machine and sign off on a Derry City win

Dundalk (66%) vs Waterford (13%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Waterford is 19%

The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 9
The number of sim away wins for Waterford is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 0

Dundalk (1.55xG) vs Waterford (0.65xG)

Here’s a win for Dundalk …… and looking like a relegation year for the Blues.

Shamrock Rovers (72%) vs Finn Harps (8%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps is 18%

The number of sim home wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 8
The number of sim away wins for Finn Harps is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 0

Shamrock Rovers (1.86xG) vs Finn Harps (1.35xG)

Looks like a Rovers win

Longford (18%) vs St. Patricks (58%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and St. Patricks is 23%

The number of sim home wins for Longford is = 4
The number of sim away wins for St. Patricks is = 3
The number of sim draw is = 3

Longford (0.69xG) vs St. Patricks (1.4xG)

Predicting a St. Pats win here.

Sligo Rovers (54%) vs Drogheda (21%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Drogheda is 24%

The number of sim home wins for Sligo Rovers is = 4
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 4

Sligo Rovers (1.03xG) vs Drogheda (0.84xG)

A Sligo win to stay top of the table.

LOI Matchday 14 Predictions

May 27th, 2021

Matchday 14 and all to play for as I’m now really just looking for a clean sweep weekend somewhere in the prediction chain.

Can Sligo keep the momentum going.

Finn Harps (23%) vs Sligo Rovers (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers is 28%

The number of sim home wins for Finn Harps is = 2
The number of sim away wins for Sligo Rovers is = 7
The number of sim draw is = 1

Finn Harps (1.2xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.35xG)

A prediction of another Sligo Rovers win here, they’d be on a roll !!!

Drogheda (32%) vs Derry City (42%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Derry City is 25%

The number of sim home wins for Drogheda is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Derry City is = 6
The number of sim draw is = 1

Drogheda (1.18xG) vs Derry City (0.68xG)

Okay data is two – one in favour of Derry, but I just don’t like the look of Derry’s xG. I’m going for a Drogs win again.

St. Patricks (30%) vs Dundalk (43%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Dundalk is 27%

The number of sim home wins for St. Patricks is = 2
The number of sim away wins for Dundalk is = 5
The number of sim draw is = 3

St. Patricks (1.44xG) vs Dundalk (1.4xG)

Will predict this as a draw.

Bohemians (45%) vs Waterford (27%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Waterford is 27%

The number of sim home wins for Bohemians is = 2
The number of sim away wins for Waterford is = 5
The number of sim draw is = 3

Bohemians (1.59xG) vs Waterford (0.66xG)

So a Bohs win here ….. sorry Blues fans.

And finally

Longford (13%) vs Shamrock Rovers (65%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Shamrock Rovers is 21%

The number of sim home wins for Longford is = 1
The number of sim away wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 7
The number of sim draw is = 2

Longford (0.70xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.42xG)

The Rovers will get back into this title race.

LOI Matchday 13 Non Predictions

May 27th, 2021

This is a painful post as I have to admit I missed the opportunity to make any predictions before the Matchday 13 games kicked off and so I’m left to compare what the prediction would have been … and side by side to the actual result.

Before I get into that from matchday 12 there were 2 correct out of the 5 making it a running total of 23 out of 59.

So to the rubber that is matchday 13, with predictions and results.

Bohemians (24%) vs Dundalk (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Dundalk is 26%

So I would have gone for a Dundalk win and the score was ….. Bohemians 5 – 1 Dundalk. So way off there.

Next up

Derry City (36%) vs St. Patricks (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and St. Patricks is 28%

System looks to be a draw and the result Derry City 2 – 2 St. Patricks. A draw so on the money here

Waterford (57%) vs Finn Harps (18%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Finn Harps is 24%

The Blues for a predicted win. The result was Waterford 1 – 2 Finn Harps. Waterford played very well in the 1st half but Finn Harps came on strong in the 2nd.

Drogheda (54%) vs Longford (22%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Longford is 23%

So a Drogs win predicated and the result was Drogheda 4 – 1 Longford, so a good win all around.

Finally

Shamrock Rovers (55%) vs Sligo Rovers (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers is 26%

So a clear Rovers (SHA) win predicted and the final results Shamrock Rovers 0 – 1 Sligo Rovers. Well there’s a turn up for the books a whole load of ways around, although then again sounds like it was well deserved. Sligo for the league by the looks of things now !!!

LOI Matchday 12 Predictions

May 20th, 2021

Starting to bomb out on these predictions, 1 out of 4 last week, and could have been close on two of the match, but it is what it is.

Running total is 21 out of 54.

This weeks predictions, we will start again with Waterford, under new management.

Waterford (40%) vs Derry City (33%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Derry City is 27%

The number of sim home wins for Waterford is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Derry City is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 3

Waterford (0.62xG) vs Derry City (0.68xG)

All indications here are for a draw ….. I’ll go with the draw and maybe hope that new management spur the Blues towards a real win.

St. Patricks (48%) vs Bohemians (23%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Bohemians is 28%

The number of sim home wins for St. Patricks is = 4
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 5
The number of sim draw is = 1

St. Patricks (1.51xG) vs Bohemians (1.45xG)

Now I went all gun hoo with St. Pats last week and they lost badly, and there will be goals in this match, and I’ll stick with the St. Pats win.

Dundalk (45%) vs Shamrock Rovers (27%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers is 27%

The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 2

Dundalk (1.66xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.36xG)

Ahhh the data is messing with me now, all pointers are to a Dundalk win …. it can’t be, I’m going against the grain here and will predict a draw (dare I say based on the xG).

Finn Harps (34%) vs Drogheda (38%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Drogheda is 28%

The number of sim home wins for Finn Harps is = 5
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 3

Finn Harps (1.14xG) vs Drogheda (0.76xG)

Fair play to the Drogs they’ve really embedded themselves into the season well, and Finn Harps have tipped away nicely nothing much between these teams and so will plum for a draw.

Sligo Rovers (63%) vs Longford (14%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Longford is 21%

The number of sim home wins for Sligo Rovers is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Longford is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 2

Sligo Rovers (0.94xG) vs Longford (0.74xG)

Nice bit of news about the new stadium for Sligo and I’ll go for win for Sligo here too.

LOI Matchday 11 Predictions

May 14th, 2021

Oh for fffffff sake match day 10 was a wash out especially the Waterford vs Drogheda match where I could not have predicted the chaos there.

Running total is 20 out of 50.

For this weekend, there’s just the 4 matches.

Finn Harps (11%) vs Dundalk (67%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Dundalk is 20%

The number of sim home wins for Finn Harps is = 0
The number of sim away wins for Dundalk is = 9
The number of sim draw is = 1

Finn Harps (1.12xG) vs Dundalk (1.29xG)

All pointing towards a Dundalk win, and their not exactly in a great place and Finn Harps have been tipping along nicely ….. but will stick to the data guns and say Dundalk for the win.

Drogheda (25%) vs St. Patricks (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and St. Patricks is 25%

The number of sim home wins for Drogheda is = 3
The number of sim away wins for St. Patricks is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 3

Drogheda (1.07xG) vs St. Patricks (1.2xG)

Can Drogheda score goals their xG is going to be way off given the 7 goal win last week. Will go for a St. Pats win.

Shamrock Rovers (56%) vs Derry City (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City is 25%

The number of sim home wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Derry City is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 3

Shamrock Rovers (2.07xG) vs Derry City (0.66xG)

The sims seem to indicate a draw but over all al Rovers win here is predicted.

Longford (24%) vs Bohemians (50%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Bohemians is 26%

The number of sim home wins for Longford is = 2
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 6
The number of sim draw is = 2

Longford (0.7xG) vs Bohemians (1.43xG)

And finally a Bohs win here.

What could go wrong ?

Expected Goals (xG)

May 9th, 2021

As part of my LOI weekly predictions (don’t ask about match day 10 it was a wipe out) I’ve also included an indication of the teams expected goals (xG). Now it might be worth articulating an introduction to expected goals and there are four videos worth a review.

  • One by David Sumpter (Friends of Tracking)
  • One by Duncan Alexander at Opta.
  • One by Tifo football.
  • One with example goals with the xG overlaid on the screen.

First up David Sumpter on How to explain expected goals to a football player.

In this video David takes us through the probability of scoring a goal in the penalty area, with an overview of Barcelona statistics of expected Goals, indicating how a penalty is a 75% chance of scoring, and in comparison to a 7% chance of scoring, and an explanation of what this means.

True to the point there can and should be a reasoned discussion around goal scoring (and goal prevention) instead of always the emotional one, and xG gives some insights on this.

Opta’s Duncan Alexander takes us through the expected goals metric in the video Opta Expected Goals.

Of note (agt the time of the video), 4 variables are considered with Opta, Assist Type, Header / Foot, Big Chance and Angle/Distance.

The video by Tifo Football is a nice By The Numbers presentation on What is xG ?

They describe in nicer detail how good a shooting chance was, how likely a similar chances was, to result in a goal. They also highlight that people like StrataBet considers defenders in the way while other models like Opta do not and that sets of 5~10 games get best value for xG.

Expected goals (xG)

So expected goals (xG) is a probability of scoring a goal, with a look at how good a shooting chance was, how likely a similar chances was, to result in a goal.

Finally here’s a video demonstration of expected goals (xG)

LOI Matchday 10 Predictions

May 6th, 2021

First up news of the week in LOI has to be the dismissal of Kevin Sheedy from Waterford FC. I think the writing was on the wall from early on, dare I say before the season even started. Back to the drawing board for Waterford. Before making a prediction on their game, and the four others for matchday 10, a review of match day 9 shows a 3 out of 5 result, with two draws called correctly.

The running total is 20 correct results out of 45.

Now to the predictions for matchday 10

Derry City (64%) vs Longford (14%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Longford is 20%

The number of sim home wins for Derry City is = 8
The number of sim away wins for Longford is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 1

Derry City (1.0xG) vs Longford (0.78xG)

I went for a Derry win last week and it didn’t work out, but the predictions are aiming towards a Derry win again here, and so we stay with the Derry win (predicted)

Dundalk (61%) vs Sligo Rovers (16%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers is 22%

The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 5
The number of sim away wins for Sligo Rovers is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 3

Dundalk (1.41xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.42xG)

Sligo are scoring away from home (xG) and these two teams had a draw on the opening day of the season. Data says Dundalk win, the heart says draw, but will go for the Dundalk win.

Waterford (55%) vs Drogheda (21%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Drogheda is 23%

The number of sim home wins for Waterford is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 2

Waterford (0.62xG) vs Drogheda (0.76xG)

This will be a tight game again, well mainly a 0-0 type match, but the data is pointing towards a Waterford FC win, and we all need some cheering up, so a Waterford win in this one.

Bohemians (58%) vs Finn Harps (16%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Finn Harps is 26%

The number of sim home wins for Bohemians is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Finn Harps is = 3
The number of sim draw is = 4

Bohemians (1.38xG) vs Finn Harps (1.26xG)

I’m going to call a draw in this one, the simmed matches and xG are indicating a draw and Finn Harps are tipping along nicely and I cannot push for the Bohs win, so a draw it will be.

St. Patricks (33%) vs Shamrock Rovers (38%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Shamrock Rovers is 29%

The number of sim home wins for St. Patricks is = 2
The number of sim away wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 4

St. Patricks (1.59xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.23xG)

And finally to the top of the table clash and this has a draw written all over it, and so another draw.