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LOI Matchday 27 Predictions

September 10th, 2021

This will have to be a quick one.

Results from match day 26 was 2 results out of 4.

Running total is 54 correct predictions out of 118 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. 

Derry City (61%) vs Finn Harps (15%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Finn Harps is 23%

Derry City (1.19xG) vs Finn Harps (1.17xG)

Derry for the win

Drogheda (32%) vs Bohemians (41%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Bohemians is 27%

Drogheda (1.21xG) vs Bohemians (1.51xG)

Looks like a draw.

Sligo Rovers (36%) vs St. Patricks (35%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and St. Patricks is 29%

Sligo Rovers (1.37xG) vs St. Patricks (1.37xG)

Looks like another draw.

Shamrock Rovers (61%) vs Waterford (15%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford is 22%

Shamrock Rovers (1.76xG) vs Waterford (0.74xG)

Rovers win as they head for the league title

Longford (10%) vs Dundalk (70%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Dundalk is 17%

Longford (0.75xG) vs Dundalk (1.20xG)

A Dundalk win for this one.

LOI Matchday 26 Predictions

September 3rd, 2021

Had a little breather from the predictions and delighted to see the Blues still in the cup with a tastie tie up against UCD in the cup next.

Back to the league and the predictions from match day 25 was 1 correct prediction out of the 4 matches. Some shook results in there for Harps and Derry.

Running total is 52 correct predictions out of 114 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. 

So to match day 26 and only 4 matches this weekend too, and the predictions are.

Waterford (22%) vs Dundalk (54%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Dundalk is 24%

Waterford (0.85xG) vs Dundalk (1.23xG)

I have tickets for this match and it should be a close run game given the position of both teams, and the prediction machine is giving it to Dundalk on a couple of factors, but my heart will have to overrule here. An in person roar I believe will push towards a Blues win.

St. Patricks (69%) vs Longford (10%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Longford is 18%

St. Patricks (1.47xG) vs Longford (0.78xG)

In this one St. Pats need to get back to winning ways and may be lucky for them here’s a fixture against Longford , prediction is a St. Pats win

Drogheda (31%) vs Sligo Rovers (42%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Sligo Rovers is 26%

Drogheda (1.22xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.35xG)

The Drogs have held their own on the return to the Premier Division and will prove to be a tough test for a Sligo team that have also done well, but happen to have ups and downs. The predictions are edging towards a Sligo win in one way, and towards Drogs in another, and so I’ll go for the Draw.

Finn Harps (14%) vs Shamrock Rovers (62%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers is 24%

Finn Harps (1.33xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.67xG)

Finally we get to the Harps against Rovers, with Harps having a good win last time out, but Rovers are going for the league and so a Rovers win here.

LOI Matchday 25 Predictions

August 19th, 2021

A short sharp look back at match day 24 and we see just 2 correct predictions. Well it wasn’t a wash out but still not that great either.

Running total is 51 correct predictions out of 110 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. 

Match day 25 for this week and the quick predictions will be

Dundalk (70%) vs Drogheda (10%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Drogheda is 15%

Dundalk (1.59xG) vs Drogheda (0.85xG)

First up we have a local derby in Louth with the prediction going for a Dundalk win here. A little surprise after the result from last week, but let’s see.

Waterford (60%) vs Longford (17%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Longford is 22%

Waterford (0.80xG) vs Longford (0.76xG)

This is a big match for the Blues in so many ways and the prediction is a Waterford win … go on the Blues.

Finn Harps (19%) vs St. Patricks (55%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and St. Patricks is 26%

Finn Harps (1.33xG) vs St. Patricks (1.42xG)

St. Pats are still chasing the leaders and for this match the prediction is an away win for St. Pats.

Sligo Rovers (42%) vs Derry City (30%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Derry City is 28%

Sligo Rovers (1.36xG) vs Derry City (0.9xG)

Last on the list for this week and the prediction here is for a draw.

LOI Matchday 24 Predictions

August 13th, 2021

Another week another set of predictions and with a look back to match day 23 I had the pleasure of getting tickets for the Waterford vs Bohs match in which the prediction came through, a well earned and deserved 1 – 0 win for the Blues.

Elsewhere the system predicted 2 of the other 4 results to give a total of 3 out of 5 this week past.

Running total is 49 correct predictions out of 105 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. 

On towards match day 25 and we have a full schedule of games with the Blues game up first.

St. Patricks (54%) vs Waterford (21%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Waterford is 24%

St. Patricks (1.47xG) vs Waterford (0.74xG)

I’m afraid to say the system is not showing a continuation of the Blues revival in this one, and so will have to go for the St. pats win.

Longford (40%) vs Finn Harps (31%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Finn Harps is 28%

Longford (0.71xG) vs Finn Harps (1.11xG)

The system is throwing up a surprise here and going for a Longford win, and with Finn Harps playing so well last week I wonder, but going against the prediction and aiming for a draw here.

Drogheda (19%) vs Shamrock Rovers (56%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Shamrock Rovers is 24%

Drogheda (1.3xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.65xG)

I wonder of the Europa win will have an impact, but predicting a Rovers win

Bohemians (40%) vs Sligo Rovers (31%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers is 29%

Bohemians (1.63xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.35xG)

A bit of a shock for Sligo last week, and with Bohs maybe on a low ebb after the European game I think a draw will happen here.

Derry City (26%) vs Dundalk (48%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Dundalk is 25%

Derry City (1.22xG) vs Dundalk (1.32xG)

This will be an import result for the Blues fans to watch out for and the prediction is a Dundalk away win.

LOI Matchday 23 Predictions

August 5th, 2021

A shortened set of fixtures to review from match day 22, and the system got 2 predictions correct out of the 3 matches, and of all the ones I didn’t back the Blues as a Blues win was against the odds, so glad to see them win but not great for a weekend clean sweep.

Running total is 46 correct predictions out of 100 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. And easy to see a 46% success rate with the predictions, which doesn’t look great, but it’s certainly picked up from the start of the season.

Anyway on to match day 23.

Derry City (55%) vs Drogheda (21%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Drogheda is 23%

Derry City (1.13xG) vs Drogheda (0.85xG)

Derry are on a bit of a roll, and looks like a Derry win here.

Waterford (37%) vs Bohemians (35%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Bohemians is 28%

Waterford (0.78xG) vs Bohemians (1.68xG)

I have tickets to go see this match Saturday so more than anything hoping to see a Blues win. And surprising enough the system is predicting one too, so will go with the home win for Waterford.

Sligo Rovers (61%) vs Finn Harps (15%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps is 24%

Sligo Rovers (1.29xG) vs Finn Harps (1.1xG)

Heading for a Sligo win here.

Dundalk (54%) vs St. Patricks (21%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and St. Patricks is 24%

Dundalk (1.57xG) vs St. Patricks (1.44xG)

Indicators here are for a Dundalk win, which would be a hammer blow to St. Pat’s (for the league) given the defeat last week.

Shamrock Rovers (74%) vs Longford (7%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Longford is 15%

Shamrock Rovers (1.51xG) vs Longford (0.78xG)

Can Longford pull off a shock result this weekend, all the indicators say ….. nope, thi should be a Rovers win.

LOI Matchday 22 Predictions

July 29th, 2021

Little bit of a break after a great cup weekend, and of course before I move on let’s look at match day 21, and there were 2 out 5 matches predicted, so not so good with the new model.

Running total is 44 correct predictions out of 97 predictions made.

Okay on to match day 22 let’s see into this weekends fixtures.

Drogheda (38%) vs Waterford (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Waterford is 25%

Drogheda (1.25xG) vs Waterford (0.7xG)

So the Blues are back on the road, and in this case I’d be more hoping for a draw, but it looks like a Drogs home win.

Next up we have a top of the table clash.

Shamrock Rovers (49%) vs St. Patricks (23%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and St. Patricks is 27%

Shamrock Rovers (1.53xG) vs St. Patricks (1.48xG)

These big matches have a tendency for a draw, but will stick the neck out and go for a home win for Rovers.

Longford (22%) vs Derry City (53%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Derry City is 24%

Longford (0.70xG) vs Derry City (0.86xG)

A shortened LOI campaign this weekend and so this last match with go to Derry City.

Euro 2020 (in 2021) Predictions Review

July 18th, 2021

So before the tournament got underway I made my predictions for the Euro 2020 tournament and the results are in.

I had 2 of the Semi-finalists Italy and England, and dare I say I’m chuffed to have called the Winner (Italy) and the Runners-up (England).

Not so good with the total goals to be scored, I had 129 whereas 142 goals were scored. I also didn’t get to name the top goalscorer for the tournament, I had Harry Kane, he was just 1 goal away, and in truth this was one goal away from winning a top prize too, but talk of that another day.

All in all though I wasn’t too far away.

I’ve also been able to look back on a scoresheet I did out at the start, and the results were based on my gut reaction to the teams & possible score lines and needless to say it wasn’t very good, I got only one of the semi-finalist (Spain) and none of the finalist, so here’s to more data based decisions.

LOI Matchday 21 Predictions

July 16th, 2021

In review just 3 matches in match day 20, and the Blues got the win we were all looking for. I should have gone for the gut feeling draw in the Drogs vs Longford match … oh well.

Running total is 42 out of 92 predictions made during the season.

On to match day 21 and there’s a full set of fixtures this weekend.

Derry City (28%) vs Shamrock Rovers (44%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers is 28%

Derry City (1.13xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.45xG)

Looks like an away day win Rovers in this one.

St. Patricks (60%) vs Drogheda (17%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Drogheda is 22%

St. Patricks (1.52xG) vs Drogheda (0.87xG)

One of the system indicators is for a draw here and so I’m going to plum for a draw.

Dundalk (75%) vs Finn Harps (7%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Finn Harps is 15%

Dundalk (1.6xG) vs Finn Harps (1.17xG)

All systems pointing towards a Dundalk win so will go with that.

Bohemians (63%) vs Longford (14%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Longford is 22%

Bohemians (1.68xG) vs Longford (0.78xG)

Great European win for Bohs during the week and hopefully they can keep the momentum going with another predicted win here against Longford.

Waterford (36%) vs Sligo Rovers (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Sligo Rovers is 27%

Waterford (0.77xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.33xG)

And finally to the Blues and for this weekend it will end as a Draw the the bit O’Red.

LOI Matchday 20 Predictions

July 8th, 2021

So what happened last week, I had another 3 out of 5 result. I should have gone with the system prediction of a Rovers win, ah well.

Running total is 40 out of 89 predictions made during the season.

Only a few matches this week due to the European qualification matches and so for this week I’ll put my neck on the line for the following results.

Finn Harps (28%) vs Waterford (44%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Waterford is 27%

Finn Harps (1.35xG) vs Waterford (0.66xG)

There’s a few pointers to a Blues win here in the simulations, and Finn Harps only had a narrow win the last time in Finn Park, and so going for the Waterford win here.

St. Patricks (48%) vs Derry City (25%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Derry City is 26%

St. Patricks (1.57xG) vs Derry City (0.86xG)

If St. Pats are going for the title push then nows the time to stamp on it, predicting a win here for St. Pats.

Longford (32%) vs Drogheda (42%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Drogheda is 25%

Longford (0.7xG) vs Drogheda (0.87xG)

Drogheda had a nice healthy win here the last time they played at Bishopsgate, and the system is slightly predicting another win here for Drogheda and so will go with it, although it could end up being a draw.

LOI Matchday 19 Predictions

July 1st, 2021

We start with a quick review and find that there’s 3 out of 5 for match day 18. I really didn’t see that Sligo Rovers result coming through, while the system did, but then the system didn’t manage to really define the draws soooooo.

Running total of 37 out of 84 predictions over the season so far.

We will now move over the half way point of matches in the LOI, so another small challenge is to better the first half

So for match day 19 we will call

Drogheda (51%) vs Finn Harps (23%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Finn Harps is 25%

Drogheda (1.26xG) vs Finn Harps (1.22xG)

Going for a Drogheda win here, and maybe give a helping hand to the Blues to catch the Harps in the league table.

Derry City (49%) vs Waterford (26%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Waterford is 25%

Derry City (1.06xG) vs Waterford (0.68xG)

While Waterford grabbed a win here earlier in the season, this systems model is still giving it as a Derry win, and with little to suggest a draw, I will have t go for the Derry win here.

Bohemians (35%) vs St. Patricks (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and St. Patricks is 29%

Bohemians (1.63xG) vs St. Patricks (1.50xG)

This has draw written all over it, a draw it will be.

Shamrock Rovers (39%) vs Dundalk (33%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk is 28%

Shamrock Rovers (1.5xG) vs Dundalk (1.37xG)

The system is pointing at another draw here, I’ll go for it, but more than likely a narrow Rovers win, but no calling it a draw.

Longford (22%) vs Sligo Rovers (52%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Sligo Rovers is 25%

Longford (0.68xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.25xG)

Finally we will go for a win for Sligo Rovers here with a score of 1 -2 to the bit O’Red.