Miguel PdL

Well well, I’ve lost momentum coming to the end of the season and now there’s only 2 chances to get a full house …….. oh no I’ve missed the Drogs vs Dundalk match already, grrrrrr.

Anyway from Matchday 31 (way back in mid-October) I got 3 out of 5 results.

Running total is 64 correct predictions out of 139 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. 

For match day 35 of the four matches left in the weekend the following predictions will come through.

St. Patricks (65%) vs Finn Harps (13%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Finn Harps is 21%

St. Patricks (1.45xG) vs Finn Harps (0.98xG)

St. Pats have spluttered to the end of the season, but predicted to take all 3 points here against Finn Harps.

Derry City (42%) vs Sligo Rovers (30%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Sligo Rovers is 28%

Derry City (1.43xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.32xG)

A local derby here, and spoils with be in favour of ….. Derry City for the win.

Bohemians (27%) vs Shamrock Rovers (44%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers is 29%

Bohemians (1.91xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.56xG)

I got to see the Rovers in the flesh in Waterford last week, and it was quite impressive how they attacked with 4 if not 5 players at the top fo the pitch. Prediction here is in favour of the Champions to win this derby match, a Rovers win.

Longford (24%) vs Waterford (51%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Waterford is 25%

Longford (0.78xG) vs Waterford (0.78xG)

The Blues, talk about must win, they simple need to put this match to bed and set up the challenge to try and reach the Drogs and overlapping Finn Harps too. Tough task but still in Waterfords hands. The prediction machine is for a Waterford win, let’s do this.

Will this system ever get a 5 out of 5, there’s only 6 more match days to find out. As for look back to the previous predictions for match day 29 and the system (not me any more) got 3 out of 5.

Running total is 61 correct predictions out of 134 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. 

So on to match day 31 and first up a blockbuster of a match as the Blues take on Finn Harps.

Waterford (55%) vs Finn Harps (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Finn Harps is 25%

Waterford (0.91xG) vs Finn Harps (1.03xG)

And the system is predicting a Blues win, so will take that.

Bohemians (26%) vs Dundalk (47%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Dundalk is 26%

Bohemians (1.87xG) vs Dundalk (1.34xG)

I always thought it was the Blues trying to chase down the Town, but it looks like if Dundalk can do a job on the Bohs this weekend then things could be very different. The system in general is pointing to Dundalk win, that will surely mix things up in the mid-table, although there are some pointers towards a Bohs win and so I’ll go for Bohs.

Derry City (37%) vs St. Patricks (35%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and St. Patricks is 27%

Derry City (1.41xG) vs St. Patricks (1.33xG)

Looks like a draw, will call a draw.

Drogheda (56%) vs Longford (20%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Longford is 23%

Drogheda (1.15xG) vs Longford (0.79xG)

Poor olde Longford, just not their year and for this match day 31 it doesn’t look good, a win for Drogheda is predicted.

Shamrock Rovers (54%) vs Sligo Rovers (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers is 26%

Shamrock Rovers (1.67xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.31xG)

A busy week for Shamrock Rovers, and it starts with a clash of the rovers, with the prediction swinging towards, Shamrock Rovers … surprise surprise.

Another week and the prediction score goes 3 out of 6 for match day 28.

Running total is 58 correct predictions out of 129 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. 

Another quick update with not much commentary for this coming week.

Drogheda (27%) vs St. Patricks (47%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and St. Patricks is 25%

Drogheda (1.19xG) vs St. Patricks (1.29xG)

Predicting St. Pats win

Finn Harps (13%) vs Dundalk (64%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Dundalk is 21%

Finn Harps (1.15xG) vs Dundalk (1.32xG)

Predict Dundalk win

Shamrock Rovers (56%) vs Derry City (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City is 25%

Shamrock Rovers (1.65xG) vs Derry City (1.15xG)

Predicting a Rovers win

Longford (22%) vs Bohemians (51%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Bohemians is 26%

Longford (0.77xG) vs Bohemians (1.65xG)

Predicting a Bohs win

Finally

Sligo Rovers (47%) vs Waterford (26%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Waterford is 27%

Sligo Rovers (1.39xG) vs Waterford (0.71xG)

Predicting a Sligo Rovers win

Match day 27 ( previous set of matches) had a few more matches than I had originally anticipated, given the catch up with the matches that didn’t get played due to the great European runs, but look I covered 5 of the matches and out of the 5, just 1 prediction came through. Wow things are getting worse by the week.

Running total is 55 correct predictions out of 123 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. 

Let’s move to match day 28.

Waterford (50%) vs Drogheda (25%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Drogheda is 24%

Waterford (0.86xG) vs Drogheda (0.89xG)

First up the mighty Blues, and they need to be out for revenge given that last time they meet in the RSC. The prediction here is a Blues win.

Derry City (66%) vs Longford (13%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Longford is 20%

Derry City (1.38xG) vs Longford (0.78xG)

Longford have had a bounce back, but putting this down for a Derry win.

Dundalk (59%) vs Sligo Rovers (17%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers is 23%

Dundalk (1.65xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.34xG)

Now on the other side Dundalk have not been on much of a bounce back, but the prediction machine is indicating a Dundalk win, and so a home win for Dundalk will have to called.

Bohemians (58%) vs Finn Harps (16%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Finn Harps is 25%

Bohemians (1.85xG) vs Finn Harps (1.03xG)

So Bohs have a few matches this game week and on this first one its a Bohs predicted win.

St. Patricks (33%) vs Shamrock Rovers (38%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Shamrock Rovers is 29%

St. Patricks (1.51xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.56xG)

Top of the table clash, looks like a draw, smells like a draw, will call a DRAW.

Bohemians (26%) vs Dundalk (47%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Dundalk is 26%

Bohemians (1.85xG) vs Dundalk (1.32xG)

This is one match Blues fans will be watching very intently, and hoping for a Bohs win, and the prediction machine sayes …… Dundalk win ….. no way have to go for the Bohs win here !

This will have to be a quick one.

Results from match day 26 was 2 results out of 4.

Running total is 54 correct predictions out of 118 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. 

Derry City (61%) vs Finn Harps (15%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Finn Harps is 23%

Derry City (1.19xG) vs Finn Harps (1.17xG)

Derry for the win

Drogheda (32%) vs Bohemians (41%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Bohemians is 27%

Drogheda (1.21xG) vs Bohemians (1.51xG)

Looks like a draw.

Sligo Rovers (36%) vs St. Patricks (35%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and St. Patricks is 29%

Sligo Rovers (1.37xG) vs St. Patricks (1.37xG)

Looks like another draw.

Shamrock Rovers (61%) vs Waterford (15%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford is 22%

Shamrock Rovers (1.76xG) vs Waterford (0.74xG)

Rovers win as they head for the league title

Longford (10%) vs Dundalk (70%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Dundalk is 17%

Longford (0.75xG) vs Dundalk (1.20xG)

A Dundalk win for this one.

Had a little breather from the predictions and delighted to see the Blues still in the cup with a tastie tie up against UCD in the cup next.

Back to the league and the predictions from match day 25 was 1 correct prediction out of the 4 matches. Some shook results in there for Harps and Derry.

Running total is 52 correct predictions out of 114 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. 

So to match day 26 and only 4 matches this weekend too, and the predictions are.

Waterford (22%) vs Dundalk (54%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Dundalk is 24%

Waterford (0.85xG) vs Dundalk (1.23xG)

I have tickets for this match and it should be a close run game given the position of both teams, and the prediction machine is giving it to Dundalk on a couple of factors, but my heart will have to overrule here. An in person roar I believe will push towards a Blues win.

St. Patricks (69%) vs Longford (10%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Longford is 18%

St. Patricks (1.47xG) vs Longford (0.78xG)

In this one St. Pats need to get back to winning ways and may be lucky for them here’s a fixture against Longford , prediction is a St. Pats win

Drogheda (31%) vs Sligo Rovers (42%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Sligo Rovers is 26%

Drogheda (1.22xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.35xG)

The Drogs have held their own on the return to the Premier Division and will prove to be a tough test for a Sligo team that have also done well, but happen to have ups and downs. The predictions are edging towards a Sligo win in one way, and towards Drogs in another, and so I’ll go for the Draw.

Finn Harps (14%) vs Shamrock Rovers (62%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers is 24%

Finn Harps (1.33xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.67xG)

Finally we get to the Harps against Rovers, with Harps having a good win last time out, but Rovers are going for the league and so a Rovers win here.

A short sharp look back at match day 24 and we see just 2 correct predictions. Well it wasn’t a wash out but still not that great either.

Running total is 51 correct predictions out of 110 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. 

Match day 25 for this week and the quick predictions will be

Dundalk (70%) vs Drogheda (10%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Drogheda is 15%

Dundalk (1.59xG) vs Drogheda (0.85xG)

First up we have a local derby in Louth with the prediction going for a Dundalk win here. A little surprise after the result from last week, but let’s see.

Waterford (60%) vs Longford (17%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Longford is 22%

Waterford (0.80xG) vs Longford (0.76xG)

This is a big match for the Blues in so many ways and the prediction is a Waterford win … go on the Blues.

Finn Harps (19%) vs St. Patricks (55%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and St. Patricks is 26%

Finn Harps (1.33xG) vs St. Patricks (1.42xG)

St. Pats are still chasing the leaders and for this match the prediction is an away win for St. Pats.

Sligo Rovers (42%) vs Derry City (30%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Derry City is 28%

Sligo Rovers (1.36xG) vs Derry City (0.9xG)

Last on the list for this week and the prediction here is for a draw.

Another week another set of predictions and with a look back to match day 23 I had the pleasure of getting tickets for the Waterford vs Bohs match in which the prediction came through, a well earned and deserved 1 – 0 win for the Blues.

Elsewhere the system predicted 2 of the other 4 results to give a total of 3 out of 5 this week past.

Running total is 49 correct predictions out of 105 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. 

On towards match day 25 and we have a full schedule of games with the Blues game up first.

St. Patricks (54%) vs Waterford (21%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Waterford is 24%

St. Patricks (1.47xG) vs Waterford (0.74xG)

I’m afraid to say the system is not showing a continuation of the Blues revival in this one, and so will have to go for the St. pats win.

Longford (40%) vs Finn Harps (31%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Finn Harps is 28%

Longford (0.71xG) vs Finn Harps (1.11xG)

The system is throwing up a surprise here and going for a Longford win, and with Finn Harps playing so well last week I wonder, but going against the prediction and aiming for a draw here.

Drogheda (19%) vs Shamrock Rovers (56%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Shamrock Rovers is 24%

Drogheda (1.3xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.65xG)

I wonder of the Europa win will have an impact, but predicting a Rovers win

Bohemians (40%) vs Sligo Rovers (31%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers is 29%

Bohemians (1.63xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.35xG)

A bit of a shock for Sligo last week, and with Bohs maybe on a low ebb after the European game I think a draw will happen here.

Derry City (26%) vs Dundalk (48%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Dundalk is 25%

Derry City (1.22xG) vs Dundalk (1.32xG)

This will be an import result for the Blues fans to watch out for and the prediction is a Dundalk away win.

A shortened set of fixtures to review from match day 22, and the system got 2 predictions correct out of the 3 matches, and of all the ones I didn’t back the Blues as a Blues win was against the odds, so glad to see them win but not great for a weekend clean sweep.

Running total is 46 correct predictions out of 100 predictions made so far this season in the LOI. And easy to see a 46% success rate with the predictions, which doesn’t look great, but it’s certainly picked up from the start of the season.

Anyway on to match day 23.

Derry City (55%) vs Drogheda (21%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Drogheda is 23%

Derry City (1.13xG) vs Drogheda (0.85xG)

Derry are on a bit of a roll, and looks like a Derry win here.

Waterford (37%) vs Bohemians (35%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Bohemians is 28%

Waterford (0.78xG) vs Bohemians (1.68xG)

I have tickets to go see this match Saturday so more than anything hoping to see a Blues win. And surprising enough the system is predicting one too, so will go with the home win for Waterford.

Sligo Rovers (61%) vs Finn Harps (15%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps is 24%

Sligo Rovers (1.29xG) vs Finn Harps (1.1xG)

Heading for a Sligo win here.

Dundalk (54%) vs St. Patricks (21%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and St. Patricks is 24%

Dundalk (1.57xG) vs St. Patricks (1.44xG)

Indicators here are for a Dundalk win, which would be a hammer blow to St. Pat’s (for the league) given the defeat last week.

Shamrock Rovers (74%) vs Longford (7%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Longford is 15%

Shamrock Rovers (1.51xG) vs Longford (0.78xG)

Can Longford pull off a shock result this weekend, all the indicators say ….. nope, thi should be a Rovers win.

Little bit of a break after a great cup weekend, and of course before I move on let’s look at match day 21, and there were 2 out 5 matches predicted, so not so good with the new model.

Running total is 44 correct predictions out of 97 predictions made.

Okay on to match day 22 let’s see into this weekends fixtures.

Drogheda (38%) vs Waterford (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Waterford is 25%

Drogheda (1.25xG) vs Waterford (0.7xG)

So the Blues are back on the road, and in this case I’d be more hoping for a draw, but it looks like a Drogs home win.

Next up we have a top of the table clash.

Shamrock Rovers (49%) vs St. Patricks (23%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and St. Patricks is 27%

Shamrock Rovers (1.53xG) vs St. Patricks (1.48xG)

These big matches have a tendency for a draw, but will stick the neck out and go for a home win for Rovers.

Longford (22%) vs Derry City (53%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Derry City is 24%

Longford (0.70xG) vs Derry City (0.86xG)

A shortened LOI campaign this weekend and so this last match with go to Derry City.