Miguel PdL

In review just 3 matches in match day 20, and the Blues got the win we were all looking for. I should have gone for the gut feeling draw in the Drogs vs Longford match … oh well.

Running total is 42 out of 92 predictions made during the season.

On to match day 21 and there’s a full set of fixtures this weekend.

Derry City (28%) vs Shamrock Rovers (44%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers is 28%

Derry City (1.13xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.45xG)

Looks like an away day win Rovers in this one.

St. Patricks (60%) vs Drogheda (17%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Drogheda is 22%

St. Patricks (1.52xG) vs Drogheda (0.87xG)

One of the system indicators is for a draw here and so I’m going to plum for a draw.

Dundalk (75%) vs Finn Harps (7%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Finn Harps is 15%

Dundalk (1.6xG) vs Finn Harps (1.17xG)

All systems pointing towards a Dundalk win so will go with that.

Bohemians (63%) vs Longford (14%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Longford is 22%

Bohemians (1.68xG) vs Longford (0.78xG)

Great European win for Bohs during the week and hopefully they can keep the momentum going with another predicted win here against Longford.

Waterford (36%) vs Sligo Rovers (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Sligo Rovers is 27%

Waterford (0.77xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.33xG)

And finally to the Blues and for this weekend it will end as a Draw the the bit O’Red.

So what happened last week, I had another 3 out of 5 result. I should have gone with the system prediction of a Rovers win, ah well.

Running total is 40 out of 89 predictions made during the season.

Only a few matches this week due to the European qualification matches and so for this week I’ll put my neck on the line for the following results.

Finn Harps (28%) vs Waterford (44%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Waterford is 27%

Finn Harps (1.35xG) vs Waterford (0.66xG)

There’s a few pointers to a Blues win here in the simulations, and Finn Harps only had a narrow win the last time in Finn Park, and so going for the Waterford win here.

St. Patricks (48%) vs Derry City (25%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Derry City is 26%

St. Patricks (1.57xG) vs Derry City (0.86xG)

If St. Pats are going for the title push then nows the time to stamp on it, predicting a win here for St. Pats.

Longford (32%) vs Drogheda (42%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Drogheda is 25%

Longford (0.7xG) vs Drogheda (0.87xG)

Drogheda had a nice healthy win here the last time they played at Bishopsgate, and the system is slightly predicting another win here for Drogheda and so will go with it, although it could end up being a draw.

We start with a quick review and find that there’s 3 out of 5 for match day 18. I really didn’t see that Sligo Rovers result coming through, while the system did, but then the system didn’t manage to really define the draws soooooo.

Running total of 37 out of 84 predictions over the season so far.

We will now move over the half way point of matches in the LOI, so another small challenge is to better the first half

So for match day 19 we will call

Drogheda (51%) vs Finn Harps (23%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Finn Harps is 25%

Drogheda (1.26xG) vs Finn Harps (1.22xG)

Going for a Drogheda win here, and maybe give a helping hand to the Blues to catch the Harps in the league table.

Derry City (49%) vs Waterford (26%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Waterford is 25%

Derry City (1.06xG) vs Waterford (0.68xG)

While Waterford grabbed a win here earlier in the season, this systems model is still giving it as a Derry win, and with little to suggest a draw, I will have t go for the Derry win here.

Bohemians (35%) vs St. Patricks (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and St. Patricks is 29%

Bohemians (1.63xG) vs St. Patricks (1.50xG)

This has draw written all over it, a draw it will be.

Shamrock Rovers (39%) vs Dundalk (33%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk is 28%

Shamrock Rovers (1.5xG) vs Dundalk (1.37xG)

The system is pointing at another draw here, I’ll go for it, but more than likely a narrow Rovers win, but no calling it a draw.

Longford (22%) vs Sligo Rovers (52%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Sligo Rovers is 25%

Longford (0.68xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.25xG)

Finally we will go for a win for Sligo Rovers here with a score of 1 -2 to the bit O’Red.

Predictions keep on rolling through, and from the matchday 17 Monday night there were 4 out of 5 results picked up, and no clean sweep yet.

The running total is 34 out of 79 predictions over the season so far.

The Blues are up first again

Waterford (32%) vs St. Patricks (41%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and St. Patricks is 27%

Waterford (0.72xG) vs St. Patricks (1.63xG)

A number of the indicators are towards a St. Pats win, but it’s looking like a draw and I’m going to call it as a draw.

Dundalk (61%) vs Derry City (17%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Derry City is 21%

Dundalk (1.53xG) vs Derry City (0.79xG)

This should be chalked down as a Dundalk win.

Finn Harps (44%) vs Longford (28%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Longford is 28%

Finn Harps (1.33xG) vs Longford (0.74xG)

Hoping for a draw in this one, from a Blues point of view, there’s a glimpse in the system that it might call it, so going for the draw here.

Shamrock Rovers (67%) vs Drogheda (12%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda is 19%

Shamrock Rovers (1.55xG) vs Drogheda (0.93xG)

Calling Rovers to get back on track here with a win

Sligo Rovers (42%) vs Bohemians (29%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians is 29%

Sligo Rovers (0.98xG) vs Bohemians (1.46xG)

Bohs are the inform team, but calling another draw here.

Another one of those fast turn around match weekends in the LOI, and for once I managed to catch it.

A look back at Fridays fixtures and its 3 predictions out of 5, I should have stayed with the system view on St. Pats.

The running total is 30 out of 74 predictions over the season so far.

Now for matchday 17.

Drogheda (17%) vs Dundalk (61%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Dundalk is 20%

Drogheda (1.2xG) vs Dundalk (1.32xG)

A local derby with a view that Dundalk will take the spoils this time.

St. Patricks (65%) vs Finn Harps (12%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Finn Harps is 22%

St. Patricks (1.64xG) vs Finn Harps (1.22xG)

Looking like a St. Pats win here

Derry City (41%) vs Sligo Rovers (31%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Sligo Rovers is 28%

Derry City (1.07xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.25xG)

The system prediction are not really conclusive here and so I’ll sit on the fence and call a draw here.

Bohemians (27%) vs Shamrock Rovers (44%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers is 29%

Bohemians (1.61xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.47xG)

Another Dublin derby and in this case looks like a narrow Shamrock Rovers win, my gut says draw, but will stay with the Rovers win this time.

Longford (27%) vs Waterford (48%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Waterford is 25%

Longford (0.67xG) vs Waterford (0.66xG)

Talk about a 6 pointer, with the spoils going to the Blues.

The weekend in review saw 1 correct result (St. Pats), the rest well it was disappointing to see Sligo Rovers go down, but I was happy out with the Blues taking a win and going against my prediction, I can forgive the system this one time.

The running total is 27 out of 69

Now to match day 16 and the predictions are as follows

Dundalk (76%) vs Longford (5%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Longford is 11%

Dundalk (1.51xG) vs Longford (0.74xG)

Can Dundalk get back on track this week, boy does this system not know about the background turmoil at Dundalk, but anyway a Dundalk win is predicted here.

Waterford (24%) vs Shamrock Rovers (50%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers is 26%

Waterford (0.64xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.43xG)

The system has not seen the new dawn at the Blues and is predicting a Rovers win.

St. Patricks (46%) vs Sligo Rovers (26%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Sligo Rovers is 28%

St. Patricks (1.68xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.33xG)

System sayes St. Pats …….. looks like a draw, I’m going for the draw.

Bohemians (52%) vs Drogheda (22%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Drogheda is 25%

Bohemians (1.64xG) vs Drogheda (0.86xG)

Now the simulation has a Drogs win, and I wonder are the 7 goals scored away at Waterford having an effect on that. Majority of the pointers are towards a Bohs win and so will go with that.

Finn Harps (23%) vs Derry City (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Derry City is 27%

Finn Harps (1.33xG) vs Derry City (0.75xG)

I’m not so sure about the xG on this one, but a Derry win is predicted.

Match day 14 is behind me and the view in the rear view mirror is 3 out of 5, with the machine predicting a Derry win and I just went against it ……. I have to stop doing that.

The running total is 26 out of 64

Okay for Match day 15 the machine is predicting the following;

Derry City (43%) vs Bohemians (29%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Bohemians is 28%

The number of sim home wins for Derry City is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 0

Derry City (1.04xG) vs Bohemians (1.46xG)

I have to go with the machine and sign off on a Derry City win

Dundalk (66%) vs Waterford (13%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Waterford is 19%

The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 9
The number of sim away wins for Waterford is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 0

Dundalk (1.55xG) vs Waterford (0.65xG)

Here’s a win for Dundalk …… and looking like a relegation year for the Blues.

Shamrock Rovers (72%) vs Finn Harps (8%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps is 18%

The number of sim home wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 8
The number of sim away wins for Finn Harps is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 0

Shamrock Rovers (1.86xG) vs Finn Harps (1.35xG)

Looks like a Rovers win

Longford (18%) vs St. Patricks (58%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and St. Patricks is 23%

The number of sim home wins for Longford is = 4
The number of sim away wins for St. Patricks is = 3
The number of sim draw is = 3

Longford (0.69xG) vs St. Patricks (1.4xG)

Predicting a St. Pats win here.

Sligo Rovers (54%) vs Drogheda (21%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Drogheda is 24%

The number of sim home wins for Sligo Rovers is = 4
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 4

Sligo Rovers (1.03xG) vs Drogheda (0.84xG)

A Sligo win to stay top of the table.

Matchday 14 and all to play for as I’m now really just looking for a clean sweep weekend somewhere in the prediction chain.

Can Sligo keep the momentum going.

Finn Harps (23%) vs Sligo Rovers (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers is 28%

The number of sim home wins for Finn Harps is = 2
The number of sim away wins for Sligo Rovers is = 7
The number of sim draw is = 1

Finn Harps (1.2xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.35xG)

A prediction of another Sligo Rovers win here, they’d be on a roll !!!

Drogheda (32%) vs Derry City (42%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Derry City is 25%

The number of sim home wins for Drogheda is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Derry City is = 6
The number of sim draw is = 1

Drogheda (1.18xG) vs Derry City (0.68xG)

Okay data is two – one in favour of Derry, but I just don’t like the look of Derry’s xG. I’m going for a Drogs win again.

St. Patricks (30%) vs Dundalk (43%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Dundalk is 27%

The number of sim home wins for St. Patricks is = 2
The number of sim away wins for Dundalk is = 5
The number of sim draw is = 3

St. Patricks (1.44xG) vs Dundalk (1.4xG)

Will predict this as a draw.

Bohemians (45%) vs Waterford (27%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Waterford is 27%

The number of sim home wins for Bohemians is = 2
The number of sim away wins for Waterford is = 5
The number of sim draw is = 3

Bohemians (1.59xG) vs Waterford (0.66xG)

So a Bohs win here ….. sorry Blues fans.

And finally

Longford (13%) vs Shamrock Rovers (65%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Shamrock Rovers is 21%

The number of sim home wins for Longford is = 1
The number of sim away wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 7
The number of sim draw is = 2

Longford (0.70xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.42xG)

The Rovers will get back into this title race.

This is a painful post as I have to admit I missed the opportunity to make any predictions before the Matchday 13 games kicked off and so I’m left to compare what the prediction would have been … and side by side to the actual result.

Before I get into that from matchday 12 there were 2 correct out of the 5 making it a running total of 23 out of 59.

So to the rubber that is matchday 13, with predictions and results.

Bohemians (24%) vs Dundalk (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Dundalk is 26%

So I would have gone for a Dundalk win and the score was ….. Bohemians 5 – 1 Dundalk. So way off there.

Next up

Derry City (36%) vs St. Patricks (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and St. Patricks is 28%

System looks to be a draw and the result Derry City 2 – 2 St. Patricks. A draw so on the money here

Waterford (57%) vs Finn Harps (18%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Finn Harps is 24%

The Blues for a predicted win. The result was Waterford 1 – 2 Finn Harps. Waterford played very well in the 1st half but Finn Harps came on strong in the 2nd.

Drogheda (54%) vs Longford (22%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Longford is 23%

So a Drogs win predicated and the result was Drogheda 4 – 1 Longford, so a good win all around.

Finally

Shamrock Rovers (55%) vs Sligo Rovers (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers is 26%

So a clear Rovers (SHA) win predicted and the final results Shamrock Rovers 0 – 1 Sligo Rovers. Well there’s a turn up for the books a whole load of ways around, although then again sounds like it was well deserved. Sligo for the league by the looks of things now !!!

Starting to bomb out on these predictions, 1 out of 4 last week, and could have been close on two of the match, but it is what it is.

Running total is 21 out of 54.

This weeks predictions, we will start again with Waterford, under new management.

Waterford (40%) vs Derry City (33%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Derry City is 27%

The number of sim home wins for Waterford is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Derry City is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 3

Waterford (0.62xG) vs Derry City (0.68xG)

All indications here are for a draw ….. I’ll go with the draw and maybe hope that new management spur the Blues towards a real win.

St. Patricks (48%) vs Bohemians (23%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Bohemians is 28%

The number of sim home wins for St. Patricks is = 4
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 5
The number of sim draw is = 1

St. Patricks (1.51xG) vs Bohemians (1.45xG)

Now I went all gun hoo with St. Pats last week and they lost badly, and there will be goals in this match, and I’ll stick with the St. Pats win.

Dundalk (45%) vs Shamrock Rovers (27%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers is 27%

The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 2

Dundalk (1.66xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.36xG)

Ahhh the data is messing with me now, all pointers are to a Dundalk win …. it can’t be, I’m going against the grain here and will predict a draw (dare I say based on the xG).

Finn Harps (34%) vs Drogheda (38%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Drogheda is 28%

The number of sim home wins for Finn Harps is = 5
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 3

Finn Harps (1.14xG) vs Drogheda (0.76xG)

Fair play to the Drogs they’ve really embedded themselves into the season well, and Finn Harps have tipped away nicely nothing much between these teams and so will plum for a draw.

Sligo Rovers (63%) vs Longford (14%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Longford is 21%

The number of sim home wins for Sligo Rovers is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Longford is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 2

Sligo Rovers (0.94xG) vs Longford (0.74xG)

Nice bit of news about the new stadium for Sligo and I’ll go for win for Sligo here too.