Match day 5, starts with a review of match day 4 results, and I got 2 out of 6 games right, St. Pats are on a roll and won their game, and I got luck for once and got to recall the Derry vs Shamrock Rovers result in favour of Rovers. For the season so far I’m 4 for 20 at the moment.
I’m going to add a little to the match day 5 predictions and have a little look at xG for the teams too.
So first up here’s what the system software spat out for Waterford vs Bohemians
Waterford (43%) vs Bohemians (29%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Bohemians is 28%
So the system is going for a Waterford win, but in another part were I simulate the matches I get
The number of sim home wins for Waterford is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 6
The number of sim draw is = 1
So a Bohemians win.
There are stats for LOI with SoccerStats, and SportsMole being two good examples but for now I’ll just look to expected goals (xG) and that’s best viewed via FootyStats and for this match we have Waterford (0.17 xG) vs Bohemians (0.68 xG) so lets go for a Bohemians win.
For the next match the system has
Derry City (57%) vs Drogheda (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Drogheda is 22%
And in the sim games
The number of sim home wins for Derry City is = 5
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 3
And xG is Derry City (0.71 xG) vs Drogheda (0.56 xG).
Everything is pointing towards a Derry first win of the season …… but Drogheda have started so well. Will have to go with the system answer and call a Derry win on this one.
The next match
Dundalk (56%) vs St. Patricks (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and St. Patricks is 24%
The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 6
The number of sim away wins for St. Patricks is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 3
Dundalk (1.35 xG) vs St. Patricks (N/A)
So everything is pointing to a Dundalk win, a first for the season here too …. predicted anyway.
The next match is
Shamrock Rovers (73%) vs Longford (8%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Longford is 16%
The number of sim home wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 8
The number of sim away wins for Longford is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 1
Shamrock Rovers (0.76 xG) vs Longford (0.45 xG)
Calling a Shamrock Rovers win here.
And finally for match day 5 we’ll take
Sligo Rovers (60%) vs Finn Harps (15%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps is 24%
The number of sim home wins for Sligo Rovers is = 5
The number of sim away wins for Finn Harps is = 3
The number of sim draw is = 2
And the xG Sligo Rovers (0.52 xG) vs Finn Harps (1.2 xG)
Now in this case the xG is in favour of Finn Harps, they are flying I’m going to buck the trend and go for a Finn Harps win.