Blog of Random Thoughts and Pictures

LOI Matchday 11 Predictions

May 14th, 2021

Oh for fffffff sake match day 10 was a wash out especially the Waterford vs Drogheda match where I could not have predicted the chaos there.

Running total is 20 out of 50.

For this weekend, there’s just the 4 matches.

Finn Harps (11%) vs Dundalk (67%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Dundalk is 20%

The number of sim home wins for Finn Harps is = 0
The number of sim away wins for Dundalk is = 9
The number of sim draw is = 1

Finn Harps (1.12xG) vs Dundalk (1.29xG)

All pointing towards a Dundalk win, and their not exactly in a great place and Finn Harps have been tipping along nicely ….. but will stick to the data guns and say Dundalk for the win.

Drogheda (25%) vs St. Patricks (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and St. Patricks is 25%

The number of sim home wins for Drogheda is = 3
The number of sim away wins for St. Patricks is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 3

Drogheda (1.07xG) vs St. Patricks (1.2xG)

Can Drogheda score goals their xG is going to be way off given the 7 goal win last week. Will go for a St. Pats win.

Shamrock Rovers (56%) vs Derry City (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City is 25%

The number of sim home wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Derry City is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 3

Shamrock Rovers (2.07xG) vs Derry City (0.66xG)

The sims seem to indicate a draw but over all al Rovers win here is predicted.

Longford (24%) vs Bohemians (50%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Bohemians is 26%

The number of sim home wins for Longford is = 2
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 6
The number of sim draw is = 2

Longford (0.7xG) vs Bohemians (1.43xG)

And finally a Bohs win here.

What could go wrong ?