Miguel PdL

Predictions keep on rolling through, and from the matchday 17 Monday night there were 4 out of 5 results picked up, and no clean sweep yet.

The running total is 34 out of 79 predictions over the season so far.

The Blues are up first again

Waterford (32%) vs St. Patricks (41%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and St. Patricks is 27%

Waterford (0.72xG) vs St. Patricks (1.63xG)

A number of the indicators are towards a St. Pats win, but it’s looking like a draw and I’m going to call it as a draw.

Dundalk (61%) vs Derry City (17%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Derry City is 21%

Dundalk (1.53xG) vs Derry City (0.79xG)

This should be chalked down as a Dundalk win.

Finn Harps (44%) vs Longford (28%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Longford is 28%

Finn Harps (1.33xG) vs Longford (0.74xG)

Hoping for a draw in this one, from a Blues point of view, there’s a glimpse in the system that it might call it, so going for the draw here.

Shamrock Rovers (67%) vs Drogheda (12%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda is 19%

Shamrock Rovers (1.55xG) vs Drogheda (0.93xG)

Calling Rovers to get back on track here with a win

Sligo Rovers (42%) vs Bohemians (29%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians is 29%

Sligo Rovers (0.98xG) vs Bohemians (1.46xG)

Bohs are the inform team, but calling another draw here.

Another one of those fast turn around match weekends in the LOI, and for once I managed to catch it.

A look back at Fridays fixtures and its 3 predictions out of 5, I should have stayed with the system view on St. Pats.

The running total is 30 out of 74 predictions over the season so far.

Now for matchday 17.

Drogheda (17%) vs Dundalk (61%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Dundalk is 20%

Drogheda (1.2xG) vs Dundalk (1.32xG)

A local derby with a view that Dundalk will take the spoils this time.

St. Patricks (65%) vs Finn Harps (12%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Finn Harps is 22%

St. Patricks (1.64xG) vs Finn Harps (1.22xG)

Looking like a St. Pats win here

Derry City (41%) vs Sligo Rovers (31%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Sligo Rovers is 28%

Derry City (1.07xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.25xG)

The system prediction are not really conclusive here and so I’ll sit on the fence and call a draw here.

Bohemians (27%) vs Shamrock Rovers (44%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers is 29%

Bohemians (1.61xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.47xG)

Another Dublin derby and in this case looks like a narrow Shamrock Rovers win, my gut says draw, but will stay with the Rovers win this time.

Longford (27%) vs Waterford (48%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Waterford is 25%

Longford (0.67xG) vs Waterford (0.66xG)

Talk about a 6 pointer, with the spoils going to the Blues.

The weekend in review saw 1 correct result (St. Pats), the rest well it was disappointing to see Sligo Rovers go down, but I was happy out with the Blues taking a win and going against my prediction, I can forgive the system this one time.

The running total is 27 out of 69

Now to match day 16 and the predictions are as follows

Dundalk (76%) vs Longford (5%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Longford is 11%

Dundalk (1.51xG) vs Longford (0.74xG)

Can Dundalk get back on track this week, boy does this system not know about the background turmoil at Dundalk, but anyway a Dundalk win is predicted here.

Waterford (24%) vs Shamrock Rovers (50%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers is 26%

Waterford (0.64xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (1.43xG)

The system has not seen the new dawn at the Blues and is predicting a Rovers win.

St. Patricks (46%) vs Sligo Rovers (26%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Sligo Rovers is 28%

St. Patricks (1.68xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.33xG)

System sayes St. Pats …….. looks like a draw, I’m going for the draw.

Bohemians (52%) vs Drogheda (22%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Drogheda is 25%

Bohemians (1.64xG) vs Drogheda (0.86xG)

Now the simulation has a Drogs win, and I wonder are the 7 goals scored away at Waterford having an effect on that. Majority of the pointers are towards a Bohs win and so will go with that.

Finn Harps (23%) vs Derry City (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Derry City is 27%

Finn Harps (1.33xG) vs Derry City (0.75xG)

I’m not so sure about the xG on this one, but a Derry win is predicted.

Match day 14 is behind me and the view in the rear view mirror is 3 out of 5, with the machine predicting a Derry win and I just went against it ……. I have to stop doing that.

The running total is 26 out of 64

Okay for Match day 15 the machine is predicting the following;

Derry City (43%) vs Bohemians (29%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Bohemians is 28%

The number of sim home wins for Derry City is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 0

Derry City (1.04xG) vs Bohemians (1.46xG)

I have to go with the machine and sign off on a Derry City win

Dundalk (66%) vs Waterford (13%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Waterford is 19%

The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 9
The number of sim away wins for Waterford is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 0

Dundalk (1.55xG) vs Waterford (0.65xG)

Here’s a win for Dundalk …… and looking like a relegation year for the Blues.

Shamrock Rovers (72%) vs Finn Harps (8%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps is 18%

The number of sim home wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 8
The number of sim away wins for Finn Harps is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 0

Shamrock Rovers (1.86xG) vs Finn Harps (1.35xG)

Looks like a Rovers win

Longford (18%) vs St. Patricks (58%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and St. Patricks is 23%

The number of sim home wins for Longford is = 4
The number of sim away wins for St. Patricks is = 3
The number of sim draw is = 3

Longford (0.69xG) vs St. Patricks (1.4xG)

Predicting a St. Pats win here.

Sligo Rovers (54%) vs Drogheda (21%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Drogheda is 24%

The number of sim home wins for Sligo Rovers is = 4
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 4

Sligo Rovers (1.03xG) vs Drogheda (0.84xG)

A Sligo win to stay top of the table.