{"id":950,"date":"2021-03-19T00:09:04","date_gmt":"2021-03-19T00:09:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/?p=950"},"modified":"2021-03-19T00:12:12","modified_gmt":"2021-03-19T00:12:12","slug":"football-opening-day-predictions-for-league-of-ireland-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/football-opening-day-predictions-for-league-of-ireland-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Football opening day predictions for League of Ireland 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The new season (2021) is just about to get underway for the League of Ireland and unfortunately I’m not quite ready with the full league table predictions, but I have got an early version of match prediction analysis software in place (details to follow at a later date) and so I’m going to take a quick look at my local team Waterford FC first and see what we have in store in this first league game against Drogheda United<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What a first match to pick, Waterford and Drogheda haven’t played against each other in the LOI Premier League since July 2007, a 3-0 home win for Drogheda<\/a>, and with all of my data so far going back to 2012, I’m left a little stumped with having to go on to predict this one. There’s just a model of the home \/ away goal scoring rates in the LOI since 2012, so in using this the result pops out as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Probability of a Home win for Drogheda is 30%
The Probability of an Away win for Waterford is 45%
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Waterford is 25%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Okay an away win for Waterford (maybe), let’s see what happens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the way it wasn’t that easy to find a dated version of LOI results from way back when, Whoscored<\/a> ended up being the best source, with an honourable mention for Goal<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the other matches here are the predictions for the opening day <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shamrock Rovers (50%) vs St. Patricks (23%)
Draw (27%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finn Harps (24%) vs Bohemians (47%)
Draw (29%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Longford Town (22%) vs Derry City (53%)
Draw (25%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sligo Rovers (24%) vs Dundalk (50%)
Draw (26%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So wins for Shamrock Rovers, Bohemians, Derry City, Dundalk and Waterford FC for this opening day, let’s see how it pans out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The new season (2021) is just about to get underway for the League of Ireland and unfortunately I’m not quite ready with the full league table predictions, but I have got an early version of match prediction analysis software in place (details to follow at a later date) and so I’m going to take a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[18,199],"tags":[212,213,214,215],"class_list":["post-950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-football","category-mathematical-modelling-of-football","tag-league-of-ireland","tag-loi","tag-prediction","tag-score"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7O9Cj-fk","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=950"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/950\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":958,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/950\/revisions\/958"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}