{"id":1064,"date":"2021-05-09T21:56:48","date_gmt":"2021-05-09T21:56:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/?p=1064"},"modified":"2021-05-09T21:56:48","modified_gmt":"2021-05-09T21:56:48","slug":"expected-goals-xg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/expected-goals-xg\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Goals (xG)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As part of my LOI weekly predictions (don&#8217;t ask about match day 10 it was a wipe out) I&#8217;ve also included an indication of the teams expected goals (xG). Now it might be worth articulating  an introduction to expected goals and there are four videos worth a review.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>One by David Sumpter (Friends of Tracking)<\/li><li>One by Duncan Alexander at Opta.<\/li><li>One by Tifo football.<\/li><li>One with example goals with the xG overlaid on the screen.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>First up David Sumpter on How to explain expected goals to a football player.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Xc6IG9-Dt18?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-GB&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In this video David takes us through the probability of scoring a goal in the penalty area, with an overview of Barcelona statistics of expected Goals, indicating how a penalty is a 75% chance of scoring, and in comparison to a 7% chance of scoring, and an explanation of what this means.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>True to the point there can and should be a reasoned discussion around goal scoring (and goal prevention) instead of always the emotional one, and xG gives some insights on this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opta&#8217;s Duncan Alexander takes us through the expected goals metric in the video Opta Expected Goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/w7zPZsLGK18?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-GB&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Of note (agt the time of the video), 4 variables are considered with Opta, Assist Type, Header \/ Foot, Big Chance and Angle\/Distance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The video by Tifo Football is a nice By The Numbers presentation on What is xG ? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/zSaeaFcm1SY?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-GB&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>They describe in nicer detail how good a shooting chance was, how likely a similar chances was, to result in a goal. They also highlight that people like StrataBet considers defenders in the way while other models like Opta do not and that sets of 5~10 games get best value for xG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Expected goals (xG)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>So expected goals (xG) is a probability of scoring a goal, with a look at how good a shooting chance was, how likely a similar chances was, to result in a goal.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally here&#8217;s a video demonstration of expected goals (xG)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Ab4yngjjYME?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-GB&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As part of my LOI weekly predictions (don&#8217;t ask about match day 10 it was a wipe out) I&#8217;ve also included an indication of the teams expected goals (xG). Now it might be worth articulating an introduction to expected goals and there are four videos worth a review. One by David Sumpter (Friends of Tracking) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[18,199],"tags":[219,185,220],"class_list":["post-1064","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-football","category-mathematical-modelling-of-football","tag-expected-goals","tag-football","tag-xg"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7O9Cj-ha","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1064","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1064"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1064\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1065,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1064\/revisions\/1065"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1064"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1064"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1064"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}