Match day 5, starts with a review of match day 4 results, and I got 2 out of 6 games right, St. Pats are on a roll and won their game, and I got luck for once and got to recall the Derry vs Shamrock Rovers\u00a0 result in favour of Rovers. For the season so far I’m 4 for 20 at the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I’m going to add a little to the match day 5 predictions and have a little look at xG for the teams too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So first up here’s what the system software spat out for Waterford vs Bohemians<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Waterford (43%) vs Bohemians (29%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Bohemians is 28%<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So the system is going for a Waterford win, but in another part were I simulate the matches I get<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The number of sim home wins for Waterford is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 6
The number of sim draw is = 1<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So a Bohemians win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are stats for LOI with SoccerStats<\/a>, and SportsMole<\/a> being two good examples but for now I’ll just look to expected goals (xG) and that’s best viewed via FootyStats<\/a> and for this match we have Waterford (0.17 xG) vs Bohemians (0.68 xG) so lets go for a Bohemians win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For the next match the system has<\/p>\n\n\n\n Derry City (57%) vs Drogheda (19%) And in the sim games<\/p>\n\n\n\n The number of sim home wins for Derry City is = 5 And xG is Derry City (0.71 xG) vs Drogheda (0.56 xG). <\/p>\n\n\n\n Everything is pointing towards a Derry first win of the season …… but Drogheda have started so well. Will have to go with the system answer and call a Derry win on this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The next match<\/p>\n\n\n\n Dundalk (56%) vs St. Patricks (19%) The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 6 Dundalk (1.35 xG) vs St. Patricks (N\/A)<\/p>\n\n\n\n So everything is pointing to a Dundalk win, a first for the season here too …. predicted anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The next match is<\/p>\n\n\n\n Shamrock Rovers (73%) vs Longford (8%) The number of sim home wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 8 Shamrock Rovers (0.76 xG) vs Longford (0.45 xG)<\/p>\n\n\n\n Calling a Shamrock Rovers win here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And finally for match day 5 we’ll take<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sligo Rovers (60%) vs Finn Harps (15%) The number of sim home wins for Sligo Rovers is = 5 And the xG Sligo Rovers (0.52 xG) vs Finn Harps (1.2 xG)<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now in this case the xG is in favour of Finn Harps, they are flying I’m going to buck the trend and go for a Finn Harps win.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Match day 5, starts with a review of match day 4 results, and I got 2 out of 6 games right, St. Pats are on a roll and won their game, and I got luck for once and got to recall the Derry vs Shamrock Rovers\u00a0 result in favour of Rovers. For the season so […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[18,199],"tags":[212,213,214,215],"class_list":["post-1042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-football","category-mathematical-modelling-of-football","tag-league-of-ireland","tag-loi","tag-prediction","tag-score"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7O9Cj-gO","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1042","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1042"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1042\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1046,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1042\/revisions\/1046"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1042"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1042"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miguelpdl.com\/weblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1042"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Drogheda is 22%<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 3<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and St. Patricks is 24%<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The number of sim away wins for St. Patricks is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 3<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Longford is 16%<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The number of sim away wins for Longford is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 1<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps is 24%<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The number of sim away wins for Finn Harps is = 3
The number of sim draw is = 2<\/p>\n\n\n\n