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LOI Matchday 6 Predictions

April 19th, 2021

Match day 5 review and got 2 prediction out of 5, and going a bit mad that I didn’t stick with the system selection of Sligo Rovers over Finn Harps.

The running total is 6 out of 25.

Now in to match day 6 predictions

Drogheda (18%) vs Shamrock Rovers (58%)
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Shamrock Rovers is 23%

The number of sim home wins for Drogheda is = 1
The number of sim away wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 5
The number of sim draw is = 4

Drogheda (1.24xG) vs Shamrock Rovers (0.72xG)

Going for a Shamrock Rovers win.

St. Patricks (49%) vs Waterford (25%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Waterford is 26%

The Probability of a Home win for St. Patricks is 49%
The Probability of an Away win for Waterford is 25%

St. Patricks (1.39xG) vs Waterford (0.6xG)

Going for St. Pats win

Longford (42%) vs Finn Harps (30%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Finn Harps is 28%

The number of sim home wins for Longford is = 5
The number of sim away wins for Finn Harps is = 3
The number of sim draw is = 2

Longford (0.86xG) vs Finn Harps (1.06xG)

Going for a draw in this one

Derry City (25%) vs Dundalk (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Dundalk is 25%

The number of sim home wins for Derry City is = 1
The number of sim away wins for Dundalk is = 8
The number of sim draw is = 1

Derry City (0.86xG) vs Dundalk (0.84xG)

Dundalk win in this case.

Bohemians (39%) vs Sligo Rovers (31%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers is 29%

The number of sim home wins for Bohemians is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Sligo Rovers is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 3

Bohemians (0.35xG) vs Sligo Rovers (1.09xG)

Going for a draw here.

LOI Matchday 5 Predictions

April 15th, 2021

Match day 5, starts with a review of match day 4 results, and I got 2 out of 6 games right, St. Pats are on a roll and won their game, and I got luck for once and got to recall the Derry vs Shamrock Rovers  result in favour of Rovers. For the season so far I’m 4 for 20 at the moment.

I’m going to add a little to the match day 5 predictions and have a little look at xG for the teams too.

So first up here’s what the system software spat out for Waterford vs Bohemians

Waterford (43%) vs Bohemians (29%)
The Probability of a Draw between Waterford and Bohemians is 28%

So the system is going for a Waterford win, but in another part were I simulate the matches I get

The number of sim home wins for Waterford is = 3
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 6
The number of sim draw is = 1

So a Bohemians win.

There are stats for LOI with SoccerStats, and SportsMole being two good examples but for now I’ll just look to expected goals (xG) and that’s best viewed via FootyStats and for this match we have Waterford (0.17 xG) vs Bohemians (0.68 xG) so lets go for a Bohemians win.

For the next match the system has

Derry City (57%) vs Drogheda (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Drogheda is 22%

And in the sim games

The number of sim home wins for Derry City is = 5
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 3

And xG is Derry City (0.71 xG) vs Drogheda (0.56 xG).

Everything is pointing towards a Derry first win of the season …… but Drogheda have started so well. Will have to go with the system answer and call a Derry win on this one.

The next match

Dundalk (56%) vs St. Patricks (19%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and St. Patricks is 24%

The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 6
The number of sim away wins for St. Patricks is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 3

Dundalk (1.35 xG) vs St. Patricks (N/A)

So everything is pointing to a Dundalk win, a first for the season here too …. predicted anyway.

The next match is

Shamrock Rovers (73%) vs Longford (8%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Longford is 16%

The number of sim home wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 8
The number of sim away wins for Longford is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 1

Shamrock Rovers (0.76 xG) vs Longford (0.45 xG)

Calling a Shamrock Rovers win here.

And finally for match day 5 we’ll take

Sligo Rovers (60%) vs Finn Harps (15%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps is 24%

The number of sim home wins for Sligo Rovers is = 5
The number of sim away wins for Finn Harps is = 3
The number of sim draw is = 2

And the xG Sligo Rovers (0.52 xG) vs Finn Harps (1.2 xG)

Now in this case the xG is in favour of Finn Harps, they are flying I’m going to buck the trend and go for a Finn Harps win.

LOI Matchday 4 Predictions

April 8th, 2021

As I go into match day 4, a review of match day 3 reveals that I got, or should I start to say the system got, 1 result correct that was the Sligo Rovers win. While I hedged against them at the weekend it was good to see Waterford FC pick up their first points of the season.

The running tally so far after 14 games is 2 correct predictions, a 14% hit rate so far ….. terrible. Top of a local prediction league is 8 out of 14 so a bit to go there to catch up.

For match day 4 here are the predictions

St. Patricks (47%) vs Derry City (26%)
The Probability of a Draw between St. Patricks and Derry City is 26%

So calling a St. Pats win

Dundalk (62%) vs Bohemians (15%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Bohemians is 22%

Dundalk have had a shaky start to the season, but will go for the Dundalk win.

Finn Harps (24%) vs Waterford (49%)
The Probability of a Draw between Finn Harps and Waterford is 27%

Finn Harps are flying it but the system is saying a Waterford win, so will go for the Waterford to win scenario and make up for last week.

Longford (36%) vs Drogheda (38%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and Drogheda is 25%

This is very close looks like it could be a draw.

Sligo Rovers (28%) vs Shamrock Rovers (43%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers is 29%

Dare I say a clash at the top of the table, and will go for a Rovers win …… Shamrock Rovers.

There’s an extra game this week

Derry City (29%) vs Shamrock Rovers (43%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers is 28%

And looks to be another Shamrock Rovers win to really put them top of the table. Now in truth I called this already as a draw a week or so back, but I’m going for Rovers win now.

LOI Matchday 3 Predictions

April 1st, 2021

Before going into Match day 3 what was predicted from Match day 2, and it was 1 out of 4 matches, the St. Patricks win over Drogheda was the one and only predication right this season and nothing else, although Bohs were 2-0 up in their match at one stage.

Anyway here’s Match day 3 predictions

Longford (23%) vs Sligo Rovers (51%)
Probability of a Draw between Longford and Sligo Rovers is 25%

So calling a Sligo Rovers win and drive towards the top of the table.

Shamrock Rovers (38%) vs Dundalk (34%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk is 28%

Calling this clash of the giants to end in a draw.

Drogheda (50%) vs Finn Harps (24%)
The Probability of a draw between Drogheda and Finn Harps is 26%

Finn Harps have had a fine start to the season but it will come to a halt in Head in the Game Park I think, so calling a Drogheda win

Derry City (44%) vs Waterford (30%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Waterford is 26%

The first points of the season will be earned by Derry City

Bohemians (35%) vs St. Patricks (36%)
The Probability of a Draw between Bohemians and St. Patricks is 29%

In this one I’ll sit on the fence and go for a draw.

LOI Matchday 2 Predictions

March 25th, 2021

Here’s another go at the match day predictions, using past match results

For match day 2 in the League of Ireland Premier division

Dundalk (76%) vs Finn Harps (6%)
Draw (13%)

Calling a Dundalk win here

Waterford (43%) vs Sligo Rovers (30%)
Draw (27%)

Calling a drawn match

Bohemians (62%) vs Longford Town (15%)
Draw (22%)

Calling a Bohemians win

St. Patricks (62%) vs Drogheda (15%)
Draw (21%)

Calling a St. Patricks win

Derry City (29%) vs Shamrock Rovers (43%)
Draw (28%)

Calling a drawn match here once it eventually gets played.

Football opening day predictions for League of Ireland 2021

March 19th, 2021

The new season (2021) is just about to get underway for the League of Ireland and unfortunately I’m not quite ready with the full league table predictions, but I have got an early version of match prediction analysis software in place (details to follow at a later date) and so I’m going to take a quick look at my local team Waterford FC first and see what we have in store in this first league game against Drogheda United.

What a first match to pick, Waterford and Drogheda haven’t played against each other in the LOI Premier League since July 2007, a 3-0 home win for Drogheda, and with all of my data so far going back to 2012, I’m left a little stumped with having to go on to predict this one. There’s just a model of the home / away goal scoring rates in the LOI since 2012, so in using this the result pops out as:

The Probability of a Home win for Drogheda is 30%
The Probability of an Away win for Waterford is 45%
The Probability of a Draw between Drogheda and Waterford is 25%

Okay an away win for Waterford (maybe), let’s see what happens.

By the way it wasn’t that easy to find a dated version of LOI results from way back when, Whoscored ended up being the best source, with an honourable mention for Goal.

As for the other matches here are the predictions for the opening day

Shamrock Rovers (50%) vs St. Patricks (23%)
Draw (27%)

Finn Harps (24%) vs Bohemians (47%)
Draw (29%)

Longford Town (22%) vs Derry City (53%)
Draw (25%)

Sligo Rovers (24%) vs Dundalk (50%)
Draw (26%)

So wins for Shamrock Rovers, Bohemians, Derry City, Dundalk and Waterford FC for this opening day, let’s see how it pans out.