Blog of Random Thoughts and Pictures

Euro 2020 (in 2021) Predictions

June 11th, 2021

More predictions, but this time I was also entering a local Euro 2020 predictions competition. This one has proven to be a much harder undertaking. So I grabbed one big spreadsheet cranked the grey matter (no machine involved this time) and went for the following.

Shall I explain ……. na there’s loads of previews out there already, let’s just see what happens.

Semi finalists 1
France
Semi finalists 2
Italy
Semi finalists 3
Netherlands
Semi finalists 4
England
Winner
Italy
Runner-up
England
Total goals to be scored
129
Name the top goalscorer for the tournament
Harry Kane

LOI Matchday 15 Predictions

June 3rd, 2021

Match day 14 is behind me and the view in the rear view mirror is 3 out of 5, with the machine predicting a Derry win and I just went against it ……. I have to stop doing that.

The running total is 26 out of 64

Okay for Match day 15 the machine is predicting the following;

Derry City (43%) vs Bohemians (29%)
The Probability of a Draw between Derry City and Bohemians is 28%

The number of sim home wins for Derry City is = 6
The number of sim away wins for Bohemians is = 4
The number of sim draw is = 0

Derry City (1.04xG) vs Bohemians (1.46xG)

I have to go with the machine and sign off on a Derry City win

Dundalk (66%) vs Waterford (13%)
The Probability of a Draw between Dundalk and Waterford is 19%

The number of sim home wins for Dundalk is = 9
The number of sim away wins for Waterford is = 1
The number of sim draw is = 0

Dundalk (1.55xG) vs Waterford (0.65xG)

Here’s a win for Dundalk …… and looking like a relegation year for the Blues.

Shamrock Rovers (72%) vs Finn Harps (8%)
The Probability of a Draw between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps is 18%

The number of sim home wins for Shamrock Rovers is = 8
The number of sim away wins for Finn Harps is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 0

Shamrock Rovers (1.86xG) vs Finn Harps (1.35xG)

Looks like a Rovers win

Longford (18%) vs St. Patricks (58%)
The Probability of a Draw between Longford and St. Patricks is 23%

The number of sim home wins for Longford is = 4
The number of sim away wins for St. Patricks is = 3
The number of sim draw is = 3

Longford (0.69xG) vs St. Patricks (1.4xG)

Predicting a St. Pats win here.

Sligo Rovers (54%) vs Drogheda (21%)
The Probability of a Draw between Sligo Rovers and Drogheda is 24%

The number of sim home wins for Sligo Rovers is = 4
The number of sim away wins for Drogheda is = 2
The number of sim draw is = 4

Sligo Rovers (1.03xG) vs Drogheda (0.84xG)

A Sligo win to stay top of the table.